Will Syria Become the New Cyprus with Forced Guarantors?

The fall and exile of the Assad family in Syria sent shockwaves throughout the world, particularly due to the rapid collapse of the Baathist Syrian army. Currently, not only is a transitional government being formed, but regional powers look to exert their influence on Syria’s geographic importance.

Turkey, Israel, and Russia are all exerting will or influence in the new Syria, which is quickly becoming a race for regional supremacy akin to Cyprus during the height of the Cold War. While a free Syria is the ultimate goal of most factions, the question remains whether Damascus’ neighbors and global powers will allow such independence.

Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27th, 2024, Syrian rebels, led by the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) conducted an offensive in the Aleppo countryside in which Syrian defensive lines rapidly collapsed, leading to the provincial capital falling only 24 hours later.

Withdrawing from the rest of Aleppo and Idlib, the Syrian army attempted to form a major defensive line in Hama City. However, without adequate reinforcements from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia and lacking motivated and disciplined forces, the Syrian army collapsed in Hama, which allowed a nationwide rout.

The Southern Operations Room in Daraa arose, the Syrian Democratic Forces expelled Syrian forces in the East and the Turkish-backed SNA joined HTS’ now nationwide offensive. Damascus would be captured by the Southern Operations Room the night of December 7th and with it came the fall of the five-decade Assad regime.

Russia hastily evacuated Bashar al Assad and his family through the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia, but hundreds of their troops would be stranded throughout Syria while the Kremlin brokers safe passage with HTS due to the rapid collapse of the Baathist army. Now implementing a transitional government in a country that is war-battered and weary, several countries are looking to take advantage of the powder keg.

Turkey Looks to Exert Influence

Turkey, which backs and funds the Syrian National Army had intelligence of the looming HTS offensive and used it to their advantage. The millions of Syrian refugees were a red line under Tayyip Erdogan’s administration and with Assad unwilling to negotiate their return, Ankara made a move.

Supporting the offensive, Turkey effectively overthrew Assad without formally sending their armed forces to do so. Immediately after Assad fell, the Turkish government expressed willingness to be involved in the reconstruction of the country.

Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin was seen being escorted in Damascus alongside Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of HTS who is heavily involved in the transitional government and reconciliation amongst various armed factions.

Simultaneously, the Turkish-backed SNA conducted offensives against the SDF, expelling the group from Aleppo province fully with tensions arising over a potential offensive against the latter in Raqqa. The SDF is American-backed but has ties to the YPG and PKK that Turkey and the US designated as terrorist organizations.

Fearing massacres along with a deteriorating humanitarian situation, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with his counterpart, Hakan Fidan in an attempt to stem tensions. Now holding the upper cards over Syria, Ankara looks to hold negotiations favorably over Washington and Moscow.

Israel Invades

Against the backdrop of the fall of the Assad regime, the Israeli military moved to the UN disengagement zone, capturing an undefended Mount Hermon and pushing into areas of Syria’s Quneitra Governorate. Mount Hermon holds the biggest heights in Syria and gives a complete overview of the country along with Lebanon.

Simultaneously, hundreds of airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force took place against the remnants of the Syrian military’s chemical weapons facilities, naval fleet, and heavy weaponry such as combat aircraft and air defensive systems. While the strikes were strategic, it could also backfire diplomatically as well.

The new transitional government is not attempting to rebuild as Syria is war-weary with 600,000 plus dead and an economy in turmoil. The Israeli strikes could push the factions to request more direct military and diplomatic cooperation with Turkey which currently has its own regional dispute with Israel as Erdogan looks to center himself as the most influential leader of the Islamic world.

Status of US Forces

During the rise and rampage of the ISIS extremist organization, the US military would formally intervene against them in Syria, supplementing the SDF with special operations forces and several Marine battalions. Providing support to the SDF significantly weakened ISIS in Syria to where the group now remains in small pockets along the rigid terrain of Homs.

The Syrian mission has come under questions and scrutiny both at home and abroad as American politicians and citizens fear another perpetual conflict. Aside from the remnants of ISIS, there are fears of the status of the SDF as the rising regional power Turkey highly objects to the organization.

During the height of the Syrian Civil War, Turkey formally intervened, combating ISIS and the SDF, which was composed of the YPG—an offshoot of the PKK. Human rights abuses and reports came out during the Turkish/SNA operations against the SDF in Northern Syria such as extrajudicial killings, summary executions, and torture.

During President Trump’s first administration, US forces were set to leave and abandon the SDF, which caused a rift with then Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis who saw the Kurdish-led organization as a valuable regional partner.

Nevertheless, Turkey has made it clear it’s the top power broker over Syria and Trump stated the US should stay clear of Syria’s powder keg. It can be expected that unless the SDF creates a reconciliation with HTS that guarantees safety, the group will be abandoned at the mercy of Turkey to the inevitable US withdrawal.

The Status of the Tartus Naval Facility and Hmeimim Airbase

Bashar al-Assad’s fall not only has far-reaching consequences for the Middle East, but the Russian Federation as well. In 1971, the Soviet Union were allies of the Assad family and built a naval base off the coast of Tartus.

Against the backdrop of the fall of the USSR, Russia inherited the Tartus naval base and used the facility for its Mediterranean fleet for force projection throughout the region. When Assad felt immense pressure from rebel advances in 2015, Russia built the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia for bombing operations to prop up the regime.

Furthermore, the Tartus naval facility allows Russia to easily supply the Wagner Group/Africa Corps mercenaries in Africa and black market oil and wheat as Moscow’s economy comes under pressure from global sanctions due to the invasion of Ukraine.

The fall of Assad is not only a moral blow to Russia and Putin’s strongman aura, which lost service members propping up its regime, but an economic and strategic blow to the Hmeimim and Tartus naval bases. It will become increasingly harder to supplement the ‘shadow fleet’ of oil tankers and logistically supply the Wagner mercenaries in Africa.

The status of the bases now remains in question as satellite and drone footage shows a full Russian withdrawal. The Kremlin could negotiate a new lease with the HTS-led transitional government, but due to the carpet bombing and ‘double tap’ methods of the Russian Air Force, Syrians and various armed factions would also object to this.

Turkey could use its influence on the new Syria to negotiate the base under the fold of the Turkish military. Due to the strategic importance of the Syrian coastline, the West likewise could make a deal to use the base as the new Syrian government would like major investments to help rebuild the country’s economy.

Will Syria Become the New Cyprus?

Assad’s fall now gives major players to act and exert influence on Syria and the new government in Damascus may look for international guarantors to keep the sovereignty of the country intact from spiraling into another civil war.

Currently, Turkey, Israel, Russia, and other Arab League players look to have a say or force projection in the new Syria—effectively turning the country into Cyprus’ geopolitical quagmire at the height of the Cold War.

During the mid-1950s, the Greek Cypriot paramilitary EOKA fought for Cyprus’ liberation from British rule and hoped to unite the island with Greece. During the insurgency and intercommunal violence period, Greece, Turkey, the UK, and even America all sought vested interests in Cyprus which eventually led to the island’s divisions and open wounds to this day.

Syria could very much become another Cyprus scenario as even prior to the fall of Assad, his regime did not have full control over the country with Turkish influence in the North, American and SDF influence in the East, Russian influence on the coastlines, and Iranian influence along the borders with Lebanon and the South.

Having a fractured military, numerous factions that haven’t yet reconciled, and needing major investments to reinvigorate the Syrian economy, the country will come under increasing pressure from neighbors such as Turkey and Israel. Furthermore, Russia will vie to maintain control of bases with eventually the West, Arab League, and China all looking to insert influence into Syria as well.

Today Syria is a country that is war-battered and restless from the economic and physical devastation, but Syrians remain optimistic about reforms to move forward. However various foreign governments, all with different interests and objectives could fracture Syria which needs unison more than perpetual conflict.

[Photo by Christiaan Triebert, via Wikimedia Commons]

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.