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Investing.com — In a note published Monday, Evercore ISI strategists discussed why it’s exceptionally difficult for Democrats to maintain control of the Senate in 2024.
Currently holding a narrow 51-49 majority, the outlook for Democrats appears challenging, with a combination of key factors contributing to making this an uphill battle.
One major challenge stems from the necessity for Democrats to defend seats in traditionally red states. Montana and Ohio, both of which voted for Trump by significant margins in 2020, present difficult terrain.
“Montana is looking particularly difficult with the Democrat running behind in recent polls,” Evercore notes.
Another hurdle is the fight for seats in five swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. While Democratic candidates are currently leading in these battlegrounds, strategists stress that these states are highly divided, making it far from certain that Democrats can sweep them.
Moreover, Democrats must also contest a tight race in Maryland, where former Republican governor Larry Hogan poses a serious threat to what would otherwise be considered a safe Democratic seat.
Lastly, Evercore points out that Democrats face long-shot prospects in Republican-held states like Texas and Florida.
“Democrats are contesting Texas and Florida and considering putting more resources in, but for now these are highly likely to remain in Republican hands,” the note states.
In sum, to maintain control of the Senate, Democrats would need to pull off a highly improbable “inside straight” by winning all their competitive races.
“Even if Republicans get just one, they take a 51-49 majority, and if they win the White House, they only need 50- 50 as a Vice President Vance would break the tie,” Evercore explains.
“Right now, Republicans look likely to take Montana at the least, as two leading election forecasters recently moved Montana from ‘toss up’ to ‘lean Republican.’.”
Looking ahead, the implications of a Republican Senate are significant, according to strategists.
Should Kamala Harris win the presidency, she would become the first president since 1988 to start her term without her party controlling Congress. This would likely result in a significant legislative gridlock, with key proposals, including campaign promises like the ban on grocery “price gouging,” stalling in the Senate.
Oppositely, if Donald Trump secures the second term, Evercore strategists suggest that his administration is “essentially certain” to have Senate control, allowing him to push through a Republican agenda, especially on tax policy.
