Topline
The Arizona Supreme Court’s Tuesday ruling allowing a Civil War-era abortion ban to take effect gives new weight to Democrats’ hopes that a constitutional amendment set to appear on the November ballot protecting abortion access—effectively undoing the court’s decision—will boost turnout among President Joe Biden’s supporters.
Key Facts
The state Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that a 1864 law that makes it a felony to perform an abortion, except when the life of the mother is in danger, could be reinstated, superseding Arizona’s current law that prohibits abortions past 15 weeks of pregnancy.
Voters will likely have a chance in November to upend the ruling, however, as abortion rights proponents say they’ve gathered enough signatures to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would declare a “fundamental right” to abortion up until fetal viability, or about 24 weeks of pregnancy.
Democrats believe the issue could compel abortion rights proponents—who would be more likely to cast their ballots for Biden—to take to the polls in the key swing state in November, possibly boosting Democratic turnout in a once deep-red state that Biden won by a razor-thin margin of 10,457 votes in 2020.
Biden and Democrats continue to campaign on abortion rights in the wake of Roe v. Wade’s overturning and voters in multiple states have approved ballot issues expanding access to abortion.
Democrats point to Michigan as an example that pro-abortion ballot issues can boost the party: Voters in 2022 approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to abortion, blocking a 1931 law banning abortion without exceptions from being reinstated, and also elected Democrats to control of the state legislature while reelecting Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel.
“There was something real at work there,” former Democratic National Committee political director and Michigan political consultant Jill Apler told Politico of the correlation between the ballot issue and Democratic victories, adding “I think it was pretty important to Whitmer’s victory.”
Contra
The pro-abortion rights ballot issue could also draw more Republican voters to the polls, even if some of them vote in favor of abortion access. According to a Politico analysis of five states where abortion-rights measures were approved by voters, Republicans made up a significant share of the votes. In Ohio, for example, where voters approved an abortion referendum in November—which Democrats said was a harbinger for their ability to effectively campaign on the issue in 2024—more Republicans voted for the issue than Democrats.
Big Number
4.5. That’s the number of points Trump leads Biden by in Arizona, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
What To Watch For
The Biden campaign made clear last week its confidence in the ability of abortion-rights ballot issues to draw his supporters to the polls when it said it believes it can flip Florida, a tough-to-win state whose Supreme Court ruled a six-week abortion ban signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis last year can take effect. Florida voters in November will decide on a constitutional amendment that would enshrine the right to abortion, superseding the new law.
Key Background
The Arizona Supreme Court ruling comes a day after former President Donald Trump declared abortion should be a state issue, amid speculation about whether he would support a federal abortion ban—though he did not address the latter in his highly anticipated statement released Monday. The Biden campaign promptly attacked Trump in the wake of the announcement, insisting he would approve a federal abortion ban if elected—a notion that prompted rebuke from some Republicans who sided with the president. The rhetoric represents a new (largely) cohesive messaging strategy from national Republicans on abortion, allowing them to both back the reversal of Roe v. Wade but distance themselves from decisions made at state level.
Tangent
Hammering Trump for his appointment of Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade continues to be a key strategy for the Biden campaign a little more than two years after the consequential ruling. Biden’s campaign released an ad Tuesday in the wake of Trump’s announcement featuring a Texas woman, Amanda Zurawski, who said she almost died from infections when she was denied an abortion under the state’s restrictive law after her water broke at 18 weeks.
Further Reading
These States Have Abortion On The Ballot 2024—As Democrats Hope They’ll Up Voter Turnout (Forbes)
Arizona Court Reinstates Civil War-Era Abortion Ban—But Unclear How It’ll Be Enforced (Forbes)
Trump Says He’ll Leave Abortion Up To States—But Biden And Reproductive Rights Supporters Aren’t Buying It (Forbes)
