With the historic UFC 300 pay-per-view card behind us, the UFC is in Brazil for Saturday’s UFC 301 fight card, which takes place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. In the main event of the ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card, UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja puts his title on the line against the fast-rising Steve Erceg.
Pantoja captured the UFC flyweight crown in July 2023 with a split-decision victory over Brandon Moreno at UFC 290. The Brazilian competitor defended his title for the first time with a unanimous decision triumph over Brandon Royval at UFC 296 in December. Pantoja, who has a 27-5 record, is fighting in front of his hometown crowd for the first time as a member of the UFC roster at UFC 301. The last time he fought in Rio de Janeiro was in 2013 under the Shooto banner.
Erceg, who sports a 12-1 record, enters the contest as the No. 10 fighter in the official UFC flyweight rankings. Erceg, who hails from Perth, Australia, is on an 11-fight winning streak with three of those victories coming as a member of the UFC roster. His only career loss came in September 2017 in his second pro fight. Erceg is coming off a knockout win over Matt Schnell in March of this year.
In the evening’s co-main event, former two-time UFC featherweight titleholder Jose Aldo comes out of retirement to face Jonathan Martinez in a bantamweight scrap. Martinez is the No. 12 ranked fighter in the UFC’s 135-pound division.
Before UFC 301, we take a look at the betting odds, line movement, prop bets and picks for the fight card.
UFC 301 Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg for Pantoja’s UFC flyweight title
Alexandre Pantoja opened as a -250 betting favorite over Steve Erceg, who was the +190 betting underdog. Those odds have seen some movement ahead of Saturday’s scrap. Pantoja is still the favorite, but at -185 to Erceg’s +150.
Of the bets that have come in on this matchup, 68 percent have been for Erceg, and 71 percent of the money has come in on the underdog.
The betting pick in this fight is Pantoja by submission in the second half of the fight, but there is value in picking Erceg to score an upset win via knockout since he has very good boxing skills and Pantoja can get sloppy in his striking.
UFC 301 Co-Main Event: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo at bantamweight
The younger and more active fighter opened as the betting favorite in UFC 301’s co-main event. Jonathan Martinez was listed at -120 to Jose Aldo’s -145 at open. Today, Martinez is -145 to Aldo’s +120. Fifty-two percent of the bets have come in on Aldo, but Martinez has had the overwhelming amount of money placed on him at 72 percent.
The betting pick in this contest is for Jonathan Martinez to win via decision. He has the better all-around skills at this point in his career, and I have some worries that Aldo is on this card to help the UFC sell some pay-per-views, and also to fight out the last bout on his contract.
UFC 301: Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino at light heavyweight
There has been a fair amount of movement in the betting line on the light heavyweight bout between Anthony Smith and Vitor Petrino. Petrino opened as a big -400 betting favorite. That number is now -500. As for Smith, a former UFC title challenger, he opened as the +310 betting underdog, and he is now listed at +400. Smith picked up 75 percent of the bets on this fight, but Petrino has 61 percent of the handle.
The betting pick is for Petrino to win by knockout.
UFC 301: Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria at middleweight
This fight has seen the most movement on the UFC 300 pay-per-view card. Michel Pereira moved from -400 to -700 as a betting favorite, while Ihor Potieria went from +300 to +475. With the odds being what they are, there has been a lot of value betting on Potieria. He has picked up 87 percent of the wagers and 82 percent of the handle.
With the odds being so lopsided on this contest, the best bet is a small value bet for Potieria to pick up the upset.
UFC 301: Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho at middleweight
The opening fight on the UFC 301 pay-per-view card saw Caio Borralho open as a -350 betting favorite over Paul Craig, who was a +275 betting underdog. As fight night closes in, Borralho is the -650 betting favorite over the +450 Craig. Craig has picked up 65 percent of the wagers on this fight, but Borralho has 90 percent of the handle.
I expect Borralho to win by decision, but there is betting value in picking Craig to win, and even more value if one wagers on him to win by submission.
UFC 301 Prop Bets
Below are the most popular prop bets for Saturday’s UFC 301 pay-per-view fight card:
Steve Erceg by KO/TKO or DQ (+375)
Steve Erceg by Submission (+1200)
Alexandre Pantoja by Submission (+300)
Jonathan Martinez by KO/TKO or DQ (+350)
Jose Aldo by KO/TKO or DQ (+650)
Jose Aldo (BRA) in round 1 (+650)
Anthony Smith by Submission (+1400)
Anthony Smith by Submission in Round 3 (+5000)
Anthony Smith in round 3 (+2500)
Ihor Potieria by KO/TKO or DQ (+800)
Michel Pereira by KO/TKO or DQ (-155)
Ihor Potieria by Decision/Technical Decision (+1400)
Paul Craig by KO/TKO or DQ (+1500)
Paul Craig by Submission (+700)
Caio Borralho by KO/TKO or DQ (+225)
* All information via BetMGM. Information on individual fight bets are for straight bets only.
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