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Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is in the process of choosing her running mate, and who she chooses will provide insight into her battle plan for November.
Although most potential candidates share a similar demographic profile — white, male, and younger than President Joe Biden — they come from different states that could be pivotal in securing an electoral victory.
Five experts on American politics told Business Insider that Harris’ choice will likely reveal her campaign’s early strategy for winning the presidency — building a path to 270 electoral votes through the Sun Belt, or the Rust Belt, or by creating a dynamic ticket with broad national appeal.
Shapiro signals a Pennsylvania-first strategy. Cooper shows Harris on the attack.
Pennsylvania plays a big role in the calculus of winning the Electoral College. With 20 electoral votes, winning the battleground state will likely be a crucial part of both former President Donald Trump and Harris’ campaign.
“Pennsylvania is the center of the political universe,” said Thomas Gift, the director of UCL’s Centre on US Politics, in an email to BI.
“Not only will its 20 electoral votes loom large for both candidates, but its demographics — as one political strategist put it, Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between — mean that how it tips will likely be a bellwether for how Trump and Harris perform in other states,” he added.
Choosing Shapiro, the state’s governor, who has proven he can win in Pennsylvania, could significantly bolster Harris’ ticket there, Gift said.
Chuck Rocha, a political consultant and Democratic strategist, told BI that selecting Shapiro shows the campaign is “very serious about doubling down in the Rust Belt states.”
“I think it’s showing that they want to protect the blue wall,” Rocha said, referring to traditionally Democratic states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Rocha said it’s hard to imagine Harris losing Pennsylvania but achieving wins in Georgia and Arizona, so picking Shapiro would “definitely show the head nod to Pennsylvania.”
Kevin Fahey, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nottingham, agrees but told BI that a Shapiro pick may indicate some trepidation in Harris’ campaign.
“It would be a signal that the Harris campaign realizes that they’re in very deep trouble in the Upper Midwest and the Rust Belt area, and they have to cling on to Pennsylvania,” he said.
Fahey added that it may indicate a strategy of planning to “eke out a win” in Michigan, lose Wisconsin, and try to “claw back” Arizona.
He said that choosing Cooper of North Carolina, a more challenging state to win, or Beshear, unlikely to win Kentucky for the Democrats, would demonstrate a different approach.
“They’d be saying: ‘We want to go on the attack. We think we can pursue a few more states and open up the map,'” he suggested.
Beshear — charisma over geography
Fahey said choosing someone like Beshear would be an “outside-the-box choice” because it doesn’t help them geographically, “but he might help demographically.”
Kentucky is a safe Republican state. The last time it voted Democrat in a presidential election was 1996. In 2020, Trump beat Biden there by about 26 points.
But Fahey said choosing Beshear, who is 49 and one of America’s most popular governors, would show that the campaign is trying to project a “youthful” energy and a charisma that may have national appeal — prioritizing national numbers over a state-centric approach.
Plus, he’s already been an attack dog against Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, going after him for his Appalachian credentials.
Kelly could signal a strategy of doubling down on Western appeal
David Barker, director of American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, told BI that the Harris campaign will now be calculating where their strengths lie — is it in the South, the West, or the Rust Belt?
He said Harris, who has presumed appeal in Western swing states like Arizona and Nevada, given their proximity to her home state of California, would, in effect, be doubling down on her “Western appeal” by selecting Kelly, who represents Arizona.
Barker said the strategic calculations he suspects they’d be making include whether such a choice would sew up things in those states or, alternatively, become redundant.
But he said that picking Kelly wouldn’t only signal that Arizona is in play, but would likely also indicate that the campaign views him as having a broader national appeal.
“That is, would Kelly do better in the Midwest than Shapiro would in the West, etc.? My guess is that the answer to that question is yes,” he said.
Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told BI that a Kelly pick would signal thinking about the bigger picture.
Burden said that Harris’ path to victory would involve needing to win the blue wall states Trump won in 2016 — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — and that Kelly could still be a boon to the ticket outside Arizona.
“He is not beloved in his home state but has managed to attract Hispanic votes that could be helpful in other states,” Burden said.
On top of that, Burden added: “His record as an astronaut and his wife’s tragic shooting are also unique factors that no other VP pick would bring.”
