Since the expansion of the Major League Baseball playoffs, being able to predict the Trade Deadline has been a challenge.
More teams making the dance equals more borderline teams holding onto assets to sneak into the postseason, which has proven to be a crapshoot since being expanded to 12 teams.
That seems to be the theme of the 2024 Deadline as well. With less than a week to go before the decision date, it seems as though 9 teams are definitive sellers, 17 are buyers, and the remaining 4 teams may have their decision made based on their next two series.
Despite the smaller number of teams expecting to have a sellers’ mindset come July 30, the talent-level being rumored may show that quality outweighs quantity come October.
With a list including the current AL Leader for the Cy Young award, two of the most exciting young relievers in baseball, or the last two cover athletes of the MLB The Show video game, there is plenty of star power that could be on contenders by the start of August.
But, who could be the biggest asset acquired, and what would it take to get the deal done?
While the number of Cy Young winners on non-playoff rosters has increased since a starter’s win/loss record became considered more of a team stat, it’s still rare to see an expected finalist for the award be potentially moved come the deadline.
For Detroit Tiger Tarik Skubal however, the combination of his years of control and progressive improvement to dominate like he has this season has put him in a lot of team’s wish list this deadline.
The former 29th-round selection could be the poster child for player development, as he has developed from a depth pick, to a top organizational prospect, to one of the best pitchers in the American League.
In 20 starts this season, Skubal has a 2.34 ERA in 123 innings pitched. He’s struck out 146 batters compared to just 22 walks, which gives me a 0.919 WHIP and a 2.50 FIP.
And, for what it’s worth, the southpaw has posted a 11-3 record on a 50-53 team, and has already compiled 5.0 WAR, which is half of his career’s total.
At just 27-years-old, with two more seasons of arbitration following 2024, Skubal would be a valuable asset both for teams in World Series contention this year, or within the next three seasons.
Teams with young talent exceeding expectations, like the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates or Boston Red Sox, would be able to utilize a reliable starter like Skubal to get them postseason experience this season, all while being a part of a postseason roster for potentially the next three seasons.
While all three of those teams would be a strong fit, the team that would best utilize the talents of Skubal would be the Baltimore Orioles.
Despite the Orioles leading the AL East and having one of the best overall records in baseball, they have been stumbling of late. A miraculous win in the last game of the first half prevented them from losing 6 straight entering the All Star break, and overall they have lost 7 of their last 10.
While the rotation has not been the main reason for this stretch, and on the season their staff grades out well (Baltimore’s starting rotation ranks 7th in MLB by ERA), Birdland has been searching for their number 2 to compliment Corbin Burnes.
It’s safe to say Burnes is doing most of the heavy lifting for their starter’s ERA, as outside of the former Brewer’s 2.38 ERA in 124.2 innings, the rotation’s ERA would be a 4.04, good enough for 14th in baseball.
The loss of Kyle Bradish caused a lack of depth between the starters, while Grayson Rodriguez has been a quality arm with consistency issues and Cole Irvin and Dean Kremer have been inning eaters. Skubal would be the clear two in a playoff series, which would be a significant upgrade despite the fact that the top option this deadline has never pitched in the postseason.
From Detroit’s perspective, Baltimore should be the first club they contact. Despite their major league club seemingly being a list of former top prospects, they still have the top-ranked farm system in baseball.
As the Tigers are desperate to add offense to their roster, who seems to be now a bat or two away from being competitive in the AL Central, being able to potentially shop from a prospect pool of names like Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo, or Heston Kjerstad, this move could beneficially upgrade the nearby futures of both the Orioles and Tigers.