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Trump’s victory is good news for the world. American foreign policy is about to undergo a shift towards common sense. Mr Trump has often spoken about his will to put an end to the “endless wars”. In his first term, he did not start any new wars.
As long as Trump sticks to a common-sense, isolationist, America First, Peace through Strength, emphasizing economic and trade relations, and as long as he steers clear of neo-cons in his administration, US foreign policy will be on the charted course for which Americans voted. American voters did not vote for more of the same, as they gave establishment Democrats the boot and rejected a hawkish, confrontational view of the world.
In the immediate days after Trump’s win, and even before his inauguration, the Trump effect accounted for a few developments: China called for a peaceful coexistence; Hamas called for a ceasefire; Russian President Putin issued a statement in which he stated that Russia is ready for a dialogue and would negotiate only with President Trump. Financial markets also showed a sign of confidence after Trump’s win.
America does not need a military confrontation with China. Trump won’t seek an open military confrontation with China over Taiwan. In contrast to the Biden administration’s game in the Indo-Pacific, Trump’s beef with China will be mostly economic. Trade wars are expected, while a hot war against China will not be in the cards. Some voices are already warning against appointing to cabinet position in the Trump administration neo-con war-hawks such as Senator Marco Rubio. US-China relations can certainly use a rational cool-off phase.
Argentina’s President Javier Milei will be a natural Trump ally. They already met at Trump’s Florida residence in Mar-a-Lago. So will be Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban. Trump is a big fan of Hungary’s Orban.
Traditionally, Republicans pay more attention to Eastern Europe in comparison to Democrats. In contrast to Biden, during his first term, Trump met with all Central and Eastern European leaders. For Biden, Eastern Europe simply was not a priority.
Furthermore, Republicans share traditional values with Eastern European countries such as Poland and Hungary, which have been pushing against the woke agenda, similarly to the way that right voters in the US said no to the woke agenda in the presidential elections.
When it comes to EU enlargement, President Biden and the Democrats have been pushing for the premature acceptance of Western Balkan countries into the EU. Trump has no such aspirations. Democrats used to repeat that Bulgaria was bullying North Macedonia by vetoing North Macedonia’s acceptance into the EU. Trump will not follow that line. Bulgaria’s veto will not irk the Trump administration.
Notably, with Trump at the helm, there is finally a chance for the end of the war in Ukraine, although the peace which is to come will leave Ukraine bitter and disappointed. It is highly likely that Russia will get to keep many of the military gains it has claimed over the last three years. But at least there will be peace. The hopes are high for Trump’s role in the peace negotiations.
The war in Gaza and Israel’s genocide against the Palestinians are not likely to end any time soon. Both Republicans and Democrats stand firmly behind Israel. Trump’s pick for UN Ambassador, Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, confirms that. She is a staunch Israel supporter.
On the other hand, war hawks such as John Bolton, who served in the first Trump administration, have no chance for a cabinet or White House position.
The hope for peace is palpable. In the weeks to come, as Trump’s foreign policy and appointments shape up, there will be leads as to what to expect. Trump’s common-sense isolationism and emphasis on economic ties will battle the strains of legacy militarism and establishment neo-conservatism. Now all eyes will be on the Senate confirmations in the beginning of 2025. In many ways, they will define US foreign policy for the next four years.
[Photo by Gage Skidmore, via Wikimedia Commons]
Iveta Cherneva is an author and analyst in the areas of foreign policy and security. Her latest book “America in free fall” correctly predicted three years in advance that Donald Trump would win the 2024 presidential elections. Cherneva’s opinions and commentaries appear in Foreign Policy, New York Times, Washington Post, Euronews, Washington Examiner, Salon, The Geopolitics, National Interest and in peer-reviewed academic journals such as the Fletcher Forum of World Affairs. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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