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If there’s one thing Americans can agree on, it’s that they don’t like that many goods and services have gotten considerably more expensive in recent years. However, they disagree on who or what is responsible.
Where voters place their blame — and specifically whether it falls on Vice President Kamala Harris — could be one of the defining factors of the presidential election.
Early polling suggests that Harris won’t be able to entirely shed the blame that President Joe Biden has received for inflation. But in the eyes of many voters, she might get a pass.
A Morning Consult poll conducted between July 24 and 28 of nearly 5,000 registered voters across seven swing states found that 47% of respondents trusted former President Donald Trump more than Harris when it comes to handling the “cost of goods” — 42% trusted Harris more than Trump. This five-percentage-point trust gap was smaller than the 13-percentage-point gap Trump had over Biden on the same issue in a Morning Consult poll conducted in early July, before Harris became the Democratic nominee.
When asked to assess Harris’ impact on “combatting inflation,” 35% of respondents said she’d had a negative impact, 31% said she’d had a positive impact, and 22% said she’d had no impact.
Michael Traugott, a political scientist and research professor at the University of Michigan, expects the average voter to hold Harris “somewhat less” responsible for inflation than Biden, but he thinks it will be difficult for Harris to fully avoid blame.
“As a key member of the administration, Kamala Harris, as the vice president, cannot expect to escape voters’ assessments of the Democrats’ role in addressing inflation,” he told Business Insider via email. “And of course, Trump and the Republicans will continually try to pin responsibility on her.”
Americans’ frustrations about inflation and the broader economy were among the top reasons Biden was trailing Trump in many polls before he decided to end his presidential campaign. YouGov polling of over 1,000 US adults conducted in June and July found that 64% of Americans considered inflation to be a “very serious problem” and that 45% thought Trump would do a better job handling it than Biden — 27% thought Biden would do better. If Harris can avoid some of the blame Biden received for rising prices, it could improve her chances of winning over crucial swing state voters, Traugott said.
“Bidenflation” may not become “Harris-flation”
It remains to be seen how many voters will be willing to give Harris a pass on inflation, but there’s some reason for Democrats to be optimistic.
A survey of more than 1,500 registered voters conducted by the Democratic pollster Blueprint on July 21 and 22 found that voters were split 50-50 on whether they trusted Harris or Trump more to bring down prices of goods and services.
“The upside for Harris is huge: voters do not hold her accountable for Biden’s perceived failures on inflation, and she can run hard on economic messaging,” Evan Roth Smith, Blueprint’s lead pollster, told Semafor.
Additionally, Republicans’ efforts to tie the inflation of the last few years to Biden specifically — some have used the term “Bidenflation” — could make it more difficult to shift blame to Harris.
“She wasn’t the head of the inflation Biden is getting the flak for,” Elizabeth Pancotti, the director of special initiatives at the progressive group the Roosevelt Institute, told The New York Times, adding, “We don’t say ‘Harris-flation, “It’s ‘Bidenflation.'”
However, Sarah Foster, a Bankrate analyst, thinks some voters could shift much of their frustrations about rising prices from Biden to Harris.
“Americans who feel left behind by the economy, burned out because of inflation, feeling like they’re not getting by, they might still continue to cast the same amount of blame to Harris as they did for Biden, because she was still really in the White House when inflation surged,” she told FOX Business.
To be sure, it’s up for debate how much Biden, Harris, or even Trump are deserving of blame for the rising prices of the past few years. Some economists have argued that the pandemic’s impact on supply chains, consumer spending, and the labor market laid the groundwork for inflation. And given many countries across the world have also seen prices rise — some more so than the US — it’s arguably hard to pin too much blame on any one politician. However, others have argued that the Biden administration’s stimulus spending, for instance, was at least partially to blame for the spike in inflation.
Of course, from a political perspective, voters’ assessments of who’s to blame — rather than who or what is deserving — is the more important question.
It’s also up for debate which presidential candidate’s policies would help address inflation. If Trump fulfills his campaign promises of implementing tariffs, reducing immigration, and cutting corporate taxes, it could lead to higher prices, Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, told BI in June.
Additionally, it’s possible the cooling inflation of recent months could ease some voters’ concerns about prices. Inflation rose 3% in June compared to a year earlier, down from over 9% in June 2022, and wages have grown faster than inflation over the past year.
Lastly, inflation won’t be the only issue on voter’s minds as the election approaches. Abortion and immigration, for example, could also take center stage.
“This will be an important element of voters’ assessments, as it always is,” the University of Michigan’s Traugott said of inflation. “But there are cultural wedge issues that the Republicans will emphasize that may override it.”
Are you still struggling due to rising prices? Are you willing to share your story? Reach out to this reporter at [email protected].
