Market Data 
Investing.com — Shares of Vistry Group Plc (LON:) plunged by 30% following a trading update in which the company slashed its profit guidance for the 2024 financial year.
The drop in stock price came after the company said that the cost projections for a number of developments within its South Division had been understated, leading to a downward revision in profit expectations for the next three years.
In a stock exchange filing, the UK housebuilder said that a reassessment of full-life cost estimates for 9 out of its 46 active developments in the South Division, including some large-scale projects, showed a material shortfall.
“This is a big cut…….Investors will be looking to understand how the issue arose, how it is being dealt with and why and how Vistry is confident that the issue is confined to one division,” said analysts from RBC Capital Markets in a note.
The company indicated that the initial projections underestimated the total build costs by approximately 10%. While these 9 developments represent a small portion of the South Division’s projects, they are part of a wider portfolio of around 300 developments across the entire Group.
“Vistry believes the issue is confined to just 9 out of c.300 sites across the Group, but the impact on profits is a big one: a 20% cut in profit guidance for FY2024,” RBC said.
The unexpected increase in costs, focused primarily in this one division, has forced the Board to adjust its profit outlook.
As a result, Vistry now expects its adjusted profit before tax for FY24 to be reduced by approximately £80 million. This will bring the Group’s expected profit to around £350 million, a steep decline from prior forecasts.
The profit hit is not confined to 2024; the Group anticipates further impacts in subsequent years, with £30 million knocked off profit expectations for FY25 and a further £5 million in FY26.
The issues within the South Division are concerning enough that Vistry has begun making changes to its management team within the division.
An independent review has also been commissioned to investigate the causes of the cost misestimations and to ensure no similar issues arise in other parts of the business.
Despite the setback, the Group expressed confidence that these problems are isolated to the South Division.
Vistry sought to reassure investors that the overall health of the Group remains strong. The company is still targeting total completions of over 18,000 units in FY24, a key metric of its performance.
Additionally, it reiterated its commitment to achieving a net cash position by the end of 2024, compared to a net debt of £88.8 million as of 31 December 2023. Additionally, the Group also reaffirmed its £130 million share buyback programme, which was announced in September 2024.
