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Growing Chinese influence in the Middle East is raising alarm bells in Washington. A region in which the United States has been the uncontested hegemonic power, is now at risk of falling into China’s hands, at least according to alarmist foreign policy analysts. However, not only does such analysis grossly exaggerate the Chinese threat and downplay U.S. influence in the region, but it also plays into the Gulf countries’ hedging strategy, which they have employed to great effect to counter any sign of reticence by the United States as they dangle the threat of growing their ties with Beijing to extract concessions.
At the start of President Biden’s term, Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia sought closer ties with China in response to a hostile U.S. president who had vowed to make a pariah out of his kingdom on the campaign trail. In 2021, Riyadh began indigenously manufacturing ballistic missiles with China’s help. Saudi Arabia’s new missile capabilities would shake up the delicate regional power balance and challenge the Biden administration’s efforts to bring the temperature down in the Middle East.
By increasing its missile capability, Saudi Arabia sought to impede the Biden administration’s talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal, which it had opposed for not sufficiently curtailing Tehran’s malign activities in the region. President Biden had hoped that the revised deal would involve added constraints on Iran’s ballistic missile program. However, Riyadh’s improved missile capabilities made that possibility unattainable, as Iran became less willing to constrain its own ballistic missile program when one of its principal adversaries in the region was developing their own.
Riyadh’s growing ties with China extended beyond military cooperation. In late 2024, Saudi Arabia signaled its openness to using the Chinese Yuan instead of the dollar for settling oil payments with Beijing. The move was a direct threat to the dominance of the U.S. dollar and a sign of the developed relationship between the two countries. In addition, Saudi Arabia would invest in China’s artificial intelligence sector by joining the financing round for Zhipu AI, one of China’s top AI firms working on generative AI technology.
By growing his ties with Beijing, MBS looked to send a clear message to President Biden that he won’t be able to make a pariah out of Saudi Arabia unless he is willing to risk increasing China’s influence in the Middle East. Riyadh’s hedging strategy would eventually bear fruit when President Biden abandoned the hardline stance he adopted on the campaign trail against the kingdom and visited Saudi Arabia, a trip that was marked by President Biden’s infamous fist pump with MBS. Beyond easing rhetoric against Riyadh, the administration would also signal its openness to cooperation with Saudi Arabia on a civilian nuclear program and security guarantees to the Kingdom.
The United Arab Emirates would follow a similar strategy to Riyadh, as it played on Washington’s fears of growing Chinese influence in the region by developing closer ties with Beijing. In 2019, Abu Dhabi began rolling out a 5G network across the country with the help of Huawei, China’s premier telecommunications company. The move was in direct disregard of U.S. warnings against using Huawei equipment due to security concerns. The growing ties between the UAE and China prompted the Biden Administration to suspend the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE, citing the threat to the sensitive military secrets of the aircraft posed by the newly installed Chinese network. In response, the UAE has announced that it is considering the acquisition of China’s advanced Chengdu J-20 fighter jet for its air force fleet, signaling to Washington that it is open to looking elsewhere for its security needs.
In 2021, a report by the Wall Street Journal revealed that U.S. intelligence agencies detected the construction of a Chinese military base near a port in Abu Dhabi. The intelligence reports alarmed Biden administration officials, who relayed to their UAE counterparts that Chinese military presence in their country would risk harming their security relationship with the United States. The UAE would later halt work on the base after intense diplomatic outreach by Washington. Commenting on the intelligence reports, a U.A.E. Embassy spokesman in Washington said: “The U.A.E. has never had an agreement, plan, talks, or intention to host a Chinese military base or outpost of any kind.” Despite claims by UAE officials that work on the base had stopped, the Washington Post revealed in 2023 that American spy agencies observed construction on the project had resumed.
Instead of reexamining the United States’ security partnership with the UAE, following the obfuscation by UAE officials regarding the Chinese base issue, the Biden administration designated the United Arab Emirates as a major defense partner, making the UAE the second nation after India to be given such a status. Commenting on the occasion, the White House said: “President Biden today recognized the United Arab Emirates as a Major Defense Partner of the United States, joined by only India, to further enhance defense cooperation and security in the Middle East, East Africa, and the Indian Ocean regions.”
Gulf Countries have long exploited Washington’s oversensitivity towards growing Chinese engagement in the Middle East to extract concessions, and a rebalancing of relations is long overdue. The U.S., as the regional hegemon, must use its considerable leverage to protect U.S. strategic objectives in the Middle East without acquiescing to the demands of Gulf countries. The United States is the largest supplier of arms to the Middle East and is actively involved in defending the region from Iranian proxies. Gulf nations must understand that they risk losing such security if they violate a set of non-negotiables.
Gulf nations must cease cooperating with China on artificial intelligence if they wish to continue taking advantage of Western expertise in the sector and making use of advanced AI chips developed in the West. During her trip to the UAE, former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo declared, “You can’t be in both the Chinese and our camps when it comes to emerging technologies.” Such a hardline stance should not be exclusive to the UAE but enforced throughout the Gulf region. Washington should also clearly communicate to its Gulf partners that deepening their military ties with China, particularly by hosting Chinese bases on their soil, is a red line for the United States. Crossing this line will carry repercussions, including, but not limited to, restrictions on the sale of advanced American military equipment.
In pursuit of winning the great power competition in the region, multiple administrations allowed Gulf countries to employ the threat of growing their ties with Washington’s adversaries to counter any reticence by the United States. Acquiescing to the demands of Gulf nations will only further encourage them to continue their hedging strategy. Despite increased Chinese influence, the United States military remains the premier fighting force in the world and the best provider of security to Gulf monarchies. U.S. policymakers must rebalance Washington’s relationship with the region to reflect that fact.
[Photo by DALL·E]
Omar Abdelrahman is a former Marcellus Policy Fellow at the John Quincy Adams Society. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in government from the University of Texas at Austin. His interests include researching Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ groups and analyzing the approach of Islamist groups to governance in Syria. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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