- DXY Index recovers and flirts with November highs.
- Initial Jobless Claims data came out slightly lower than expected.
- Fed’s stance remains hawkish, persistently increasing pressure on US yields.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose toward 106.25 on Thursday and appears on track to test the November 1 high near 107.10. What is underpinning this rise is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance, along with a related recovery of US Treasury yields. Low Jobless Claims also benefited the US Dollar.
The US economy remains resilient, showing stubborn inflation and a strong economy. This has made the Fed adopt more hawkish messaging, and markets are delaying the start of the easing cycle.
Daily digest market movers: DXY demonstrates persistent growth coupled with robust inflation
- Fed remains committed to a hawkish stance, given ongoing inflation and robust growth in the US.
- Fed officials on Thursday spoke cautiously, asking for patience in regard to interest rate cuts.
- Market forecasts for the Fed’s upcoming meeting showed an important shift and the chances for a rate cut in June have plunged to 20%, while the possibility for a rate cut in July dropped to 50%. Current estimates suggest a likely first cut in September with a 75% probability of a second one in December.
- The US Treasury bond yields show an upward trend for the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds, currently at 4.98%, 4.68% and 4.64%, respectively.
- On the data front, weekly Jobless Claims came in at 212K, lower than the 215K expected, adding arguments for a strong labor market.
DXY technical analysis: DXY bulls step in and recover ground
The indicators on the daily chart reflect a positive bias for DXY. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has a positive slope, sitting comfortably in positive territory. This implies an underlying bullish momentum. Complementing this bullish bias is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which shows rising green bars, contributing to the overall buying sentiment.
As for the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the DXY pair remains above the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs, inferring that buying momentum is strong. Adding to this bullish scenario is the ongoing resilience of the bulls, further grounding positive sentiment.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.