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For months, Ukraine had been on the back foot in its war against Russia, with the Kremlin’s forces slowly winning control of new territory.
It’s not the first time Ukraine has used innovation, cunning, and surprise to turn its fortunes around, and offset Russia’s huge advantage in equipment and troop numbers.
As its ground forces ran perilously low on ammunition during the congressional block on US aid last year, Ukraine shifted its focus to attacking Russia’s once formidable Black Sea fleet, using sea drones and long-range missiles to force the Russian navy to retreat.
At the same time, Ukraine developed long-range aerial drones that enabled it to strike targets thousands of miles into Russia, including military bases and gas and oil sites, bringing the conflict home to ordinary Russians.
Jacob Parakilas, an analyst at the Rand Corp., told Business Insider that Ukraine’s skill at improvisation and surprise was born out of necessity.
“The Ukrainian military is good at innovation because they’ve been doing it under fire for a decade now and because they have to be,” said Parakilas.
‘A small Soviet army can’t beat a big Soviet army’
Parakilas recently traveled to Ukraine and spoke to military personnel about their tactics and strategy.
He said a recurrent theme in discussions was the wake-up call Ukraine got back in 2014, when Russia first launched its invasion, annexing parts of Donbas and the Crimea peninsula.
“Specifically, the phrase ‘a small Soviet army can’t beat a big Soviet army’ came up repeatedly in our conversations in Kyiv,” he said.
Previously, Ukraine drew its military tactics from Soviet playbooks that Russian officers knew well and could anticipate. However, the training provided by Ukraine’s Western allies gave Ukraine the capacity to surprise and outmaneuver Russia.
Innovation is central to its new military doctrine, said Parakilas.
“The Ukrainian defense establishment is well aware that a straightforward war of attrition with Russia isn’t one they can win, and the stakes of losing are existential. From that perspective, their only choice is to innovate technologically, tactically, and strategically,” said Parakilas.
He added that the relative age and experience of Ukraine’s military recruits are another factor, enabling it to draw on a wide range of private sector skills and experience to adapt technology and tactics.
By contrast, many of Russia’s recruits are younger or have been extracted from prisons to fight on the front line.
Ukraine champions innovation
Ukraine has also removed boundaries and red tape dividing the private sector and the military, with engineers, entrepreneurs, and military officials working together to produce new technology, reported Foreign Policy in July.
New drone models have given its forces precious advantages not just on the battlefield but also in striking Russian ships and targets well behind enemy lines.
The Economist reported that shortages in Western air defense systems compelled Ukraine to successfully pioneer new acoustic defensive methods.
It’s unclear exactly how Ukraine managed to take Russia by surprise with its Kursk attack.
Forbes reported that Ukraine may have used innovative jamming technology to take out Russian surveillance drones and disable communications systems.
A Ukrainian officer told The Economist that Kyiv deployed some of its most effective troops to attack Kursk, taking advantage of the fact that Russia had seen a cross-border attack as unlikely so the region was only defended by inexperienced recruits.
The New York Times reported that Ukraine disguised its military buildup on the Russian border as training exercises, with senior military officials only told of the planned assault hours before it was launched.
Military experts said that Ukraine had also exploited the sluggishness and rigidity of Russian military commanders, who scrambled to devise an effective response to the attack.
Ukraine’s capacity to rapidly adapt and exploit Russian weaknesses with ruthless efficiency is at the heart of many of its battlefield successes.
However, analysts say there are doubts over how long Ukraine can sustain its Kursk offensive.
Its military is already struggling to find recruits to hold its defensive positions on the front line, and it’s unclear if holding the territories seized in Russia will be worth the price in casualties and ammunition.
But it’s provided a much-needed glimmer of hope for Ukraine after a period of setbacks, galvanizing Ukrainians and the country’s foreign allies.
With no end in sight to Russia’s grim campaign of attrition, it’s unlikely to be the last time Ukraine will have to count on its skill at innovation and surprise to reset the balance in the war.
