Market Data 
- Uber and Lyft drivers in Phoenix and LA said that driverless taxis are hurting their earnings.
- They said Waymo One robotaxis are making their gigs even more competitive.
- Regulatory hurdles and safety concerns could slow the growth of the robotaxi industry.
Some Uber and Lyft drivers said the driverless taxis operating in their markets are driving down their earnings.
Jason D, a 50-year-old Uber driver based in Phoenix, told Business Insider it’s become harder to make money in recent years due to increased competition with human drivers, lower fares, fewer tips from riders, and higher operating costs. Now, he said the rollout of Waymo One robotaxis has made this problem even worse.
“Driverless taxis are flooding an already competitive Phoenix market and taking money from human drivers,” said Jason, who drives full-time and asked that his last name not be included for fear of professional repercussions.
Several companies are competing for a share of the US robotaxi market. However, Waymo One, Alphabet’s autonomous taxi service, announced in August that it was providing more than 100,000 paid rides weekly in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix. Waymo One also plans to expand to Atlanta and Austin early next year and will be facilitated through the Uber app. While the robotaxi industry could be slowed by regulatory hurdles and safety concerns, ride-hailing experts previously told BI that growing adoption would likely hurt Uber and Lyft drivers’ earnings in the years to come. Some drivers told BI this is already happening.
To be sure, it’s unclear how much robotaxis like Waymo One’s are currently impacting drivers’ earnings. Carl Benedikt Frey, a professor of AI and work at the Oxford Internet Institute, previously told BI there’s little evidence that robotaxis like Waymo One have had a significant impact on Uber and Lyft drivers’ earnings so far. But as more robotaxis hit the road, and fare prices come down, he said he would expect drivers’ income to take a hit.
“As the technology gets better and cheaper, drivers will feel it in their wallets,” Frey said. “We’ve seen this movie before: When Uber first showed up, it reduced traditional taxi drivers’ earnings by about 10%.”
Waymo and Uber did not respond to BI’s request for comment. In February, an Uber spokesperson told BI that the company hadn’t seen any significant impacts on drivers’ earnings in Phoenix and Las Vegas, the two cities where Uber had autonomous vehicle partnerships at the time.
A Lyft spokesperson did not respond to BI’s question about the impacts driverless taxis could have on ride-hailing drivers but said the company’s goal is to build a hybrid network of human drivers and autonomous vehicles. Additionally, Lyft partnered with Mobileye to roll out autonomous vehicles on the Lyft network.
Restrictions on robotaxis could help reduce competition
John, a 43-year-old Uber and Lyft driver based in Phoenix, said he said he thinks Waymo One’s robotaxis have hurt his earnings. He sometimes asks his passengers about their experiences using driverless taxis to get a better understanding of his competition.
He said Waymo One autonomous vehicles compete with him for rides and are sometimes cheaper than Uber and Lyft trips, which he thinks could deter passengers from using traditional ride-hailing services. John’s identity is known to BI but has been withheld for his fear of professional repercussions.
Comparing the costs of Waymo One against Uber or Lyft is difficult because prices vary by market, length of trip, promotional offers the passenger may have, and whether the client tips a human driver.
There is some relief for human drivers: Restrictions on where robotaxis can drive could help limit the impact on ride-hailing drivers.
Brad, a full-time Uber driver based in Los Angeles, said he doesn’t feel too threatened by Waymo One robotaxis in the city because they primarily offer shorter rides that he doesn’t consider to be very profitable.
“I stopped picking up local rides a long time ago,” said Brad, whose identity is known to BI but has been withheld for his fear of professional repercussions.
He added the most profitable rides tend to be airport trips — specifically when he picks up passengers from their terminals — and robotaxis aren’t allowed at the airport. Waymo One airport trips are still restricted in Los Angeles and San Francisco but are available in Phoenix.
Nicole Moore, a part-time Lyft driver and the president of the driver advocacy group Rideshare Drivers United, previously told BI that trips to and from airports are many drivers’ “bread and butter.” She said that competition from robotaxis for these rides would be a concerning development for drivers.
A key factor in the success of robotaxis could be whether riders feel comfortable without a human driver. In Phoenix, Jason said that robotaxis are sometimes a “hazard on the road.”
“They often cut me off,” he said. “I have seen them signal left and right before making a sudden turn across multiple lanes of traffic.”
In June, Waymo One recalled 672 of its driverless taxis after one hit a utility pole in Phoenix — the company said there were no passengers in the vehicle.
Jason said some riders he speaks with are comfortable with driverless cars or even think they could be safer than those driven by humans. But he’s firm in his stance.
“I am fundamentally opposed to driverless rideshare because I do believe my income is being impacted,” he said.
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