Trump’s World: Less Liberalism, More Order

Donald Trump is once again President of the United States and with his ascension, many have begun to bury the liberal international order. Questioning of international norms and institutions, disrespecting traditional allies, and cozying up to dictators are just some of the common accusations against Trump. His recent comments on Canada, Greenland and Panama are just a few of the latest that seem to support the idea that Trump will continue to behave like a bull in a china shop. Farewell to the international liberal order – at least that’s what everyone seems to think in Europe.

On a second thought, think again. The international system may well be less liberal under Trump, but he may bring more order to the world in flux for the better.

A strong track record

First, let’s look at the track record of his first presidency. Trump was the first president in years not to start any new major wars, a considerable achievement for a US President by any standard. Trump handled the three major geopolitical hot spots, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and East Asia reasonably well, especially compared to his predecessor President Obama and successor President Biden, not to mention the legacy of President Bush.

During his presidency, US deterrence against adversaries was much more credible, and despite bitter disputes with allies, particularly in Europe, NATO and East Asian alliances were actually strengthened. On the economic front, Trump’s disruptive tariffs were used much more as a bargaining chip than an end in themselves. Overall, the world was much more stable and peaceful than it had been in the previous years.

Balancing instead of idealism

What’s Trump’s secret? Perhaps as a result of his business acumen and transactional approach, Trump is much more focused on the balance of power than on norms, conventions, ideology, and ideals. What matters to him are the results and consequences of decisions, rather than blind adherence to principles and moral posturing. In his view, the purpose of international negotiations is not the pursuit of idealistic goals, hegemonic aspirations, or lecturing, but real, down-to-earth objectives. You can bet that Trump is tough, but behind the tough talk and the drama, he usually sets realistic goals. For all his imperfections, just look at the track record: USMCA, US-EU Common Understanding, US-China Phase One Deal, and Abraham Accords.   

Compare this list with the legacy of his predecessors. Even if we approach the question naively and assume that U.S. policy was full of good intentions, given the War on Terror, the Iraq War, the intervention in Libya, what were the results? Or take Ukraine. Even if the possibility of NATO membership wasn’t the only reason for Russia’s aggression, it was certainly a major driving factor. What should be the priority of a US president, the pursuit of ideal principles and maximalist power goals or finding a modus vivendi to keep the peace? After 2008 (intervention in Georgia), 2014 (annexation of Crimea), 2022 (invasion of Ukraine), do we seriously believe that Putin would just sit back and watch if NATO were to go along with Ukrainian membership much sooner and faster? If not much else, Angela Merkel got this right.       

On China and Taiwan, the Democrats have pursued a much more irresponsible policy in recent years. What benefits did it bring to provoke the CCP with high-level political visits or changing the rhetoric on Taiwan? A strategy based on ambiguity, unpredictability and at the same time caution matters in East Asian security issues has worked well for American interests in the past decades, including during Trump’s first term.      

Even in the bygone era of American hegemony, the ideals of neoconservatism and liberal interventionism had to confront the real world, and we as a collective West are still paying the price for that hubris from Afghanistan to Libya. In a World moving toward a multipolar system, with all of Trump’s cowboy allusions but at its core, a realist mindset offers a much more safer and responsible path forward for the U.S., and for the benefit of the world.

[Photo by Office of the President of the United States, via Wikimedia Commons] 

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.