Market Data 
Donald Trump’s counterprogramming to the Democratic convention continues Tuesday in Michigan, the former president’s first visit there since a seismic shakeup in the race altered the playing field in the Midwest battleground.
A month ago, the Trump campaign projected confidence in the Wolverine State. At Trump’s nominating convention, Chris LaCivita, a top strategist to the former president, told a room full of reporters that Michigan stood out as the so-called Blue Wall state most likely to turn red in November.
Days later, Trump landed triumphantly in Grand Rapids for his maiden rally with new running mate JD Vance. In what was also his first campaign event following the attempt on his life, Trump poked fun at the Democratic angst surrounding the top of their ticket.
“Who would you most like to run against?” he asked a fully packed auditorium before rattling off rumored contenders to replace President Joe Biden, who was then still seeking reelection. When the former president floated Biden’s name, his supporters cheered loudest.
But those hopes were soon dashed. The next day, Biden dropped out, and Trump’s opponent soon became Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Democrats will formally nominate Tuesday at their convention in Chicago.
Harris’ entry into the race has shifted the political landscape in Michigan, just as it has across the nation. Polls that showed Trump with an advantage earlier this summer predict a far more competitive race heading into the fall. One recent survey of likely voters from The New York Times/Siena College measured Harris’ support at 50% compared with Trump at 46% in a two-way race.
Displaying his unwillingness to fully come to terms with his fast-changing fortunes in Michigan, Trump recently spread a far-right conspiracy theory that Harris lied about her crowd sizes in the Detroit area despite overwhelming video and photographic evidence proving otherwise.
Against this backdrop, Trump arrives in Michigan once again, this time appearing an hour outside Detroit in Livingston County. Surrounded mostly by counties that voted for Biden in 2020, Livingston broke strongly for Trump, giving him more than 60% of the vote four years ago. His margin, though, was 7 points smaller than in 2016 – one of many small turns against him that contributed to Biden flipping the state.
Ahead of the visit, Harris’ campaign criticized Trump for choosing to rally supporters in Howell – the largest city in Livingston County – a month after White supremacists marched through the suburban community’s downtown. Local media in Michigan published pictures and videos of the incident, during which about a dozen masked individuals voiced support for the former president. In one video, demonstrators chanted, “We love Hitler. We love Trump.” The Republican state representative from the city called the public display “very disgraceful,” the Livingston Daily reported.
Howell has a long, complicated history with race. According to a detailed timeline published by the paper, the grand dragon of the Michigan Ku Klux Klan settled on a farm just outside the city in the 1960s, a catalyst for decades of strife in Howell. A cross burning on the lawn of a Black couple rocked the city in the 1980s, and it was the site of a KKK rally in the 1990s. More recently, students at the local high school drew outrage for racist social media messages after their all-White basketball team beat a mixed-race team.
“The racists and white supremacists who marched in Trump’s name last month in Howell have all watched him praise Hitler, defend neo-Nazis in Charlottesville, and tell far-right extremists to ‘stand back and stand by,’” Alyssa Bradley, the Harris campaign’s Michigan spokeswoman, said in a statement. “Trump’s actions have encouraged them, and Michiganders can expect more of the same when he comes to town (Tuesday).”
None of Howell’s history, however, prevented Biden from visiting in 2021. Then, he appeared at the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 324 training facility to build support for his infrastructure package and domestic agenda.
In a statement to CNN, Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the former president in Howell intends to “deliver a strong message on law and order, making it clear that crime, violence, and hate of any form will have zero place in our country when he is back in the White House.”
“Did the media write this same story when Joe Biden visited Howell in 2021, or when Kamala Harris visits cities where racist protests and marches have occurred in the past? No, of course not,” Leavitt said. The Trump campaign sent CNN a list of recent stops made by Harris in locations where the Southern Poverty Law Center had recorded race-based incidents.
Multiple sources close to the former president insisted that the campaign was unaware of the July events in Howell and chose the location for other reasons – for example, the county sheriff is a strong supporter of the former president, and the city is part of the critical Detroit media market.
“Livingston County Sheriff’s Office is an incredible supporter of the campaign and the President’s policies,” one source familiar with the decision told CNN. “They’re emblematic of what we are talking about in Howell, Michigan – meaning they support pro-police policies, they support law and order, they support all the things that the president has done in his administration. The sheriff of that county is very, very outspoken about his support of President Trump.”
Trump’s visit to Michigan is part of a four-day swing through key battlegrounds while Democrats meet in Chicago. He visited Pennsylvania on Monday and has appearances planned in North Carolina and Arizona later this week.
