Market Data 
Topline
Ahead of the first summit between U.S. and Chinese economic officials since the 2025 trade war began, President Donald Trump suggested he could significantly lower tariffs on Chinese imports, though those reduced levies are still much more severe than they were prior to the standoff.
Key Facts
An “80% Tariff on China seems right,” Trump posted to his Truth Social site early Friday, saying it was “up to” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who will lead a U.S. group meeting with Chinese officials this weekend.
That would be a significant decline from the 145% tariff now placed on Chinese goods.
Trump did not clarify if he believes it should be an immediate reduction to 80% or a longer term goal.“
Many Trade Deals in the hopper, all good (GREAT!) ones!,” Trump said in another Friday post, which came less than 24 hours after the first trade pact of his second term was announced with the U.K. on Thursday.
Contra
Though Trump posited a near halving, the 80% China tariff may be a disappointment to some. Bloomberg reported overnight the U.S. aims to propose lowering the levies to below 60% as a first step of negotiations, citing two sources familiar with U.S. preparations. Morning trading in stocks, which have jumped on U.S.-China trade progress and pulled back on setbacks, was accordingly choppy. Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.4%, boosted by Trump’s follow-up post on further trade deals. Trump encouraged investors Thursday to “go out and buy stock now.”
What To Expect From U.s.-China Trade Talks
Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will talk with a Chinese delegation led by Beijing’s top economic official He Lifeng in Geneva beginning Saturday. “I think we’re going to have a good weekend with China,” Trump said Thursday. China has a 125% tariff on U.S. imports, slightly lower than the U.S. 145% rate on Chinese goods, though some imports, such as smartphone components, are exempted from the highest levy. The effective tariff rate on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. was about 11% in 2024. Even after a potential deescalation, Goldman Sachs economists project the U.S. tariff rate on China will still be up 54 percentage points since Trump took office in January. Last year, the U.S. imported $438.9 billion worth of Chinese goods compared to $143.5 billion of exports to the country, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. China was the third-largest exporter to the U.S. last year, though its $295 billion trade surplus with the U.S. was by far the largest of any trading partner, according to the Census Bureau.
