Transatlantic Turbulence: How Trump’s Second Term Reshapes US-Europe Diplomacy

The second presidential term of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the US has intensified worries about relationships across the Atlantic. By adopting “America First” policies during his first presidential stint Trump created tensions with his European allies which caused both economic trade breakdowns and NATO partnership conflicts and deteriorating joint engagement. During his second term, the European Union enters uncertain times that involve potential trade wars and strategic defense reconfigurations.

A BBC report unveils that France along with Germany and the other European states currently experience political and economic difficulties. The bargaining power of China escalates while the United Kingdom struggles with internal factions and remains jeopardized. The question becomes pressing whether Europe can withstand Trump’s “America First” policy when he maintains his current stance under the existing circumstances.

From the beginning of his first administration, Trump applied similar thinking to trade and defense matters which continued through his second presidential term. Trump wants the US to escape its prolonged exploitation by Europe since he believes such dependence is essential to end. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel described Trump as someone who opposes international agreements since he approaches life through the binary concepts of victory and defeat.

Following his reelection Trump has established a stronger opposition against European policies. Trump actively condemns his European allies and maintains confrontational statements toward China which is his main strategic rival. The president suggested NATO withdrawal as a potential move that presents substantial security threats to European countries. Trump has proposed he may approve aggressive Russian actions if European military spending fails to rise, thus endangering the European position further.

Trade differences stand out as one aspect where Trump shows his displeasure toward the European Union. During 2024 the EU maintained a trade surplus with the U.S. totaling $18.4 billion because its value of exports exceeded its value of imports. The US plans to implement 10-20% tariffs that will affect all imports from foreign countries and these tariffs will be especially high for automobiles.

Germany could experience rising pressure as Trump continues his second presidential term which might result in damaging its economic stability. The automotive-centric economy of this nation endured a minimal economic decline amounting to 0.2% during the previous year. The largest economic power in Europe requires to be stable because its backward slide creates monetary harm for the entire regional monetary system. The former Chancellor Merkel thought Trump held a special resentment toward Germany while Ian Bond from the European Reform Center predicted Germany would stay on Trump’s “top of hit list” permanently. During an interview, Trump disclosed his distaste for seeing Mercedes-Benz vehicles in New York City although his company produces them in Alabama. The UK seeks to protect itself from the consequences of Trump’s tariff policies because a European trade war with America threatens to become a major problem.

Since beginning his presidential term Trump demonstrated openness through his strong and self-assured attitude to those who support him. Europe faces an ongoing challenge to detect threats that truly exist versus empty political declarations because the clarity remains unclear in European minds. European countries view Trump’s aggressive tariff position as a vital matter while they are not completely ready for the foreseeable consequences. The alteration of international trading mentalities threatens decades’ worth of architectural components at the core level. The European Commission asserts readiness for tackling these challenges despite the potential emergence of a major European problem if Trump launches aggressive trade conflicts against China. Such disruptions in supply chains would enable China to sell its goods to Europe at competitive prices which would seriously damage local enterprises. A power battle between Washington and Beijing threatens to create destructive effects for European interests.

Trump has informed Denmark through a threat that he will target the EU and Denmark militarily if they fail to give up Greenland to America. Under the new Vice President J.D. Vance Europe received a defense agreement although he warned that NATO support may be withdrawn unless the EU immediately stops its investigation into X.

In addition to his political engagements in the US, Elon Musk has directed criticism toward European far-left leaders Keir Starmer and Olaf Scholz. There exists no solid evidence on what extent Elon Musk’s social media activity impacts European public opinion. The European Council on Foreign Relations conducted a study titled “Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections” which revealed that there is no significant change in the opinion of the European people. 

Trump’s presidency continues to force European politicians to develop different approaches to working with him. Certain leaders adopt an appeasing approach toward his initiatives through vocal approval. French President Emmanuel Macron stands among those leaders who show extended appreciation for Trump. Macron showed his support for Trump after his reelection by issuing congratulations and granting the U.S. president an invitation to attend the Notre Dame Cathedral reopening event. When Trump served his first term as president Macron won his approval with the decision to host him at the Bastille Day festivities and build a strong bond between them in 2017. But in recent times, Macron has expressed strong support for Denmark amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive remarks regarding Greenland. Following a meeting with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Macron emphasized the importance of respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty, stating that Europe must defend its borders against any threats. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot indicated that France is prepared to deploy troops to Greenland if necessary, underscoring Europe’s commitment to standing firm against Trump’s assertions.

The United Kingdom has been protected by the US security umbrella for decades. The United States has freely exchanged intelligence, including through the Five Eyes network, which includes Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. There are strong institutional ties between the two nations, and government agencies and other public entities frequently have reliable working connections with their US counterparts. The UK government respects Trump’s love for Scotland because this country holds special meaning for him through the birthplace of his mother. Trump notably showed deep enthusiasm during his attendance at a state banquet together with Queen Elizabeth at the British Royal Court in 2019. The British government uses its historical ties with the US to build closer political relationships with Donald Trump. The UK should expect to maintain solid security and intelligence connections despite differing with Trump regarding China’s policies and free trade approaches. Further energy collaboration seems likely but economic protectionist policies might stress their complete diplomatic relationship.

Additionally, European leaders have shown interest in engaging with Trump through “checkbook diplomacy”—spending money to facilitate discussions. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recommends that EU leaders should start negotiations with Trump constructively instead of implementing countermeasures against his proposed tariffs. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is currently evaluating potential enhancements to U.S. natural gas liquefaction purchases to decrease Russia’s gas dominance after Ukraine’s invasion. Besides, the European markets plan to expand their purchase of American agricultural goods and weapons systems for portfolio diversification purposes.

European dependency on Chinese and Russian power became more evident after the COVID-19 pandemic triggered both the Ukraine war and other issues. President Macron has been warning the population about the necessity of reducing dependence on foreign regions for a long time. He advocated that Europe needs to strengthen itself to achieve independence through self-determinacy. The recent White House return of Trump has made European leaders face their continental weaknesses thereby pushing them toward independent strategies for self-sufficiency.

Trump asks Europe to boost defense spending yet European leaders evaluate different ways to achieve this goal. Through a strategic industrial defense policy Macron aims to bring unity and military coordination to the EU following the military consequences revealed by the Ukraine war. European leaders have started to question whether Trump will continue as the main military supporter for Ukraine like Biden was. EU leaders scheduled a February summit meeting for the UK to seek solutions on improving security and defense collaboration.

The slow economic performance and political instability across Europe have weakened its strength meaningfully since Trump’s initial election in 2016 according to analyst evaluations. Nationalist parties together with Euroskeptic parties and populist movements keep rising in strength throughout European states. The Alternative für Deutschland of Germany maintains sympathy toward Moscow yet Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni chooses Atlantic relations above European unity.

The migrant crisis of 2015 nearly divided Europe until the British public voted for Brexit in 2016 and brought European Union dissolution concerns to their high point. European solidarity has reemerged after Russia launched its aggression because the bloc survived both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic along with migration problems and Donald Trump’s first presidency. Brexit did not weaken the EU and the community is now showing signs of restoring stability from that impact. Since Brexit the UK has joined forces with the European Union as an active partnership to confront both China and Russia and the unclear moves of the U.S. president.

Despite apprehension from NATO members about higher defense costs demanded by Trump, the alliance has become more powerful through Sweden along with Finland joining its cohort. The Trump administration could end up showing more understanding towards Europe as both defense funding grows in Europe and right-wing political power expands.

[Photo by Office of Speaker Mike Johnson, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.