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Just two months out from the 2024 US presidential election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are working to appeal to American voters on issues like the economy, culture, women’s healthcare, and education, among other domestic matters.
But there’s a lot going on abroad right now, and many of these problems likely aren’t going away anytime soon.
Regardless of who is elected to the highest office this fall, the next president will potentially face a wide range of international challenges — and potential crises — that may draw their attention beyond the US borders. Issues range from China and Taiwan to the Middle East to the Ukraine war.
Trump’s first term, and his foreign policy in particular, were marked by an “America First” strategy that overhauled the US role on the global stage. On a second go around, it’s unclear what that continued approach would look like, although he’s recently expressed some controversial opinions on NATO, how he would have handled Israel’s war in Gaza, and the Ukraine war.
Harris, on the other hand, may find international issues to be something of a hurdle. She has yet to release a platform on issues like Ukraine and Russia, China, and North Korea, and it’s unclear how many, if any, of her policies will align with President Joe Biden’s approach.
But either Trump or Harris will likely find foreign policy at the forefront of their presidencies as the world changes — and with some conflicts on the brink or ongoing, these are some of the biggest problems that could be awaiting whoever sits in the Oval Office next.
Russia and the Ukraine war
Over two and a half years in, the war in Ukraine has no immediate end in sight. Casualties are abysmal, with recent Western intelligence estimates putting Russian deaths and injuries at over 600,000. Ukrainian forces have likewise suffered high losses, though details are unclear. Ukraine shockingly invaded the Kursk region in Russia, but Russian forces in Ukraine continue advancing.
And beyond the war itself, North Korean support for Russia, including ammunition, missiles, and other equipment, has created a concerning partnership between America’s foes.
US politics have often impacted how the country supports Ukraine, engages with its allies and partners on this issue, and how it confronts Russia over the conflict. These issues, like those of the war itself, continue to linger.
The US has been impactful, backing Ukraine as its largest single-nation provider of security assistance, but divisions in Congress have made sending more support difficult at times. Additionally, US flip-flopping and repeated hesitation on weapons provisions and use have often been criticized for hindering Ukraine.
Trump and Harris have expressed polar opposite views of supporting Ukraine, which adds uncertainty to Kyiv’s future.
Trump has said, without reason or evidence, that he’d end the Ukraine war in 24 hours and has repeatedly threatened to undermine the NATO alliance’s collective defense. Harris has said she “will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies,” citing her efforts within the Biden administration to support Kyiv as evidence.
An aggressive China
Issues in the Indo-Pacific region, especially related to China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, as well as other regional US allies, are likely to be important matters facing the next president as well.
The Pentagon has long identified this region as its primary focus, even as other conflicts around the world often pull its attention away, and all branches of the US military have stepped up training, exercises, and strategies to deter the US’ pacing challenge, China.
The ongoing clashes between China and the Philippines in contested waters in the South China Sea are rooted in long-standing disputes and have the potential to escalate into conflict, which could draw the US in through its mutual defense pact.
Recently, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command even suggested it’s possible the US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels to protect them from Chinese harassment, essentially putting the US in the middle of this South China Sea standoff.
Another potential flashpoint is a possible Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, relentlessly seeking unification. China has repeatedly stated that unification with the autonomous island nation is inevitable, even if it must be done by force. The US military has said that China aims to be ready for such a fight by 2027.
Beijing’s intimidation tactics, including large military exercises and constant incursions in Taiwan’s waters and airspace, have raised concerns over how Beijing would use its military to force Taiwan into submission.
Trump and Harris again differ on the US role in this region. Trump has shown less support for alliances, left ambiguity around US defense commitments to Taiwan, and said Taiwan should pay the US for its support. Harris has repeatedly called out China’s aggressive behavior in the region and aligns with Biden on support for Taiwan.
The ongoing crises in the Middle East
Another major issue, like the war in Ukraine, is Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza.
Since Hamas carried out its vicious terrorist attack inside Israel on October 7, 2023, killing over 1,000 Israelis, mostly civilians, according to Human Rights Watch, the horrors that have unfolded in the region have presented various challenges for the Biden administration.
Israel’s war, which has involved bombing campaigns and ground operations, has killed over 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to estimates from the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. It has also sparked increased tensions and, in some cases, outright conflicts with Iran and its proxies, often bringing the Middle East just to the brink of all-out war. There have been assassinations, missile barrages, firefights, and more.
The Iranian-backed Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman began in response to the war but have evolved into something more over time. The US has sent forces, particularly aircraft carriers and destroyers, to the region to deter Iran and confront the Houthi rebels.
Efforts to stop the Houthis have cost the US over $1 billion in weapons, including surface-to-air missiles, land-attack missiles, air-to-air missiles, and air-to-surface weapons. And that figure was just for one carrier strike group and a few extra destroyers.
It’s unclear when these conflicts will end.
Harris’ language on Israel and Gaza has mostly echoed Biden’s: staunch support for Israel but with repeated calls for a ceasefire. But the White House’s continued issues with pro-Palestinian protestors and disagreements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are trickling into Harris’ campaign.
Trump showed unequivocal support for Israel in his first term and made repeated decisions that improved US-Israeli relations. He has said he supports Israel’s war in Gaza and would continue to give Israel the weapons and aid it wants; he also told donors he’d “crush” pro-Palestinian protestors.
Tensions with North Korea
North Korea has bounced back from failed negotiations with the US and the isolation of COVID, establishing new, potentially fruitful connections with Russia through arms deals. Those ties have China engaging Pyongyang as well, leaving it, as one expert said earlier this year, “sitting pretty.”
North Korea has been emboldened, setting in stone its nuclear status and continuing to advance its missile programs while notably strengthening its relationship with US rivals.
Additionally, North Korean provocations persist amid growing concerns about inter-Korean conflict, which would, as it did in the 1950s, inevitably draw in the US in response.
Trump and Harris may be more aligned on their North Korean policy than other issues, but US policy with regard to North Korea has traditionally been a pitfall, with displays of force and demands for it to denuclearize often failing. Negotiations have also been unsuccessful.
In shaping US policy, the next president could also face challenges with South Korea’s president Yoon Suk Yeol, a hawk who has taken a harsher stance on North Korea than the previous administration, requiring the delicate navigation of bilateral relations.
Both Trump and Harris find themselves running for president at a particular tense time in global politics. Amid a number of challenges at home, US attention is being pulled in a variety of directions.
Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election this November will have to consider how to manage these issues along with the US position on the world stage. And their decisions could impact not just the US, but allies, partners, and adversaries as well.
