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Ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, had a stark warning.
There was a risk, he said, that US-China relations could “return to a downward spiral.”
US cooperation with China had increased in some areas, he added, but “on the other hand, negative factors in Sino-US relations are still rising and accumulating”, according to Chinese state media.
China’s relationship with the US has been under serious strain in recent years. From Ukraine to the Middle East, TikTok to trade, the superpowers remain at loggerheads on various issues.
A US military chief in March warned that China is engaging in the biggest military build-up since World War II and could be preparing an attack on Taiwan that risks direct military confrontation with the US.
The independent island is the main flash point between Washington and Beijing, with the US signaling that it would help defend it from China, which has long sought to bring it under its control.
As such, the US-China relationship appears to have entered a dangerous period, and time may be running out to save it.
Smoothing relations
There are reasons to be hopeful that the superpowers can remain on good terms. In recent months, there have been signs that both nations are keen to reduce tensions.
In his meeting with Blinken Friday, Xi struck a conciliatory tone, saying that the US and China should be “partners, not rivals” and avoid engaging in “vicious competition.”
China’s economy, after decades of growth, is in a property market-fuelled crisis, with foreign investment down, consumer spending low, and unemployment spiking.
Analysts say that Xi is keen to smooth ties with the West to secure the flow of US cash and retain access to crucial markets in Western Europe.
Last year, Xi offered US President Joe Biden a series of concessions to improve relations, and Chinese rhetoric against the US has been markedly less confrontational ever since.
While tensions are growing, both sides seem to want to avoid a potentially catastrophic confrontation.
“Secretary Blinken’s meetings in China underscored both the continuation of the tactical thaw in bilateral relations and the accumulation of fundamental stresses,” Ali Wyne, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, told Business Insider.
He said that technological rivalry and Taiwan tensions “are poised to intensify,” and the two countries remain “far apart” over the Russia-Ukraine war.”
“If there is a silver lining, it is that the deterioration of US-China relations is now occurring in a more predictable, controlled manner than it was a year earlier.”
China’s red lines
As well as expressing a desire for improved relations with the US, China’s foreign minister, Wang, warned the US Thursday against crossing China’s “red lines.”
Serious tensions on a range of issues remain as China intensifies its bid to dent US global power.
China is escalating its support for Russia’s military industry, according to the US, which says it is providing crucial components for weapons used to attack Ukraine.
The US has handed Ukraine billions in aid and military support to resist the invasion, with a new $61 billion bill passing this week.
Blinken said he raised concerns about China’s support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Ahead of the meeting, reports said that the US could seek to sanction Chinese banks for facilitating China’s trade in technological parts with Russia.
China denied the accusation and previously accused NATO of stoking the war in Ukraine.
A US aid package this week contained $8 billion in support for Taiwan amid escalating fears of a Chinese invasion, drawing criticism from Beijing that accused the US of a dangerous provocation.
On trade, there are further tensions, with a US law this week meaning that Chinese-owned video site TikTok could be forced to sell or be banned in the US amid concerns over the security of user data.
Despite attempts to stabilize relations, serious challenges remain.
“The trend for this year has been more engagement, more communications, but not more trust,” Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of the political-risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told Bloomberg TV this week.
Blinken will have to overcome several hurdles for US-China relations to improve.
