Market Data 
Investing.com — Strategas reports that the U.S. electoral map “is now shifting back to Trump’s favor,” after two months of strong performance from Vice President Kamala Harris.
Citing internal polling and public indicators, Strategas notes that momentum has moved away from Vice President Kamala Harris in critical swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
“For the past eight days, prominent Democrats in Michigan and Wisconsin have been sounding the alarm that internal polling in their states has moved towards Trump,” Strategas said in a Thursday note.
In a recent internal poll provided by Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, Harris is shown losing to Trump in Wisconsin, while Baldwin herself maintains a slight lead. Strategas suggests that this concern goes beyond the presidential race, potentially impacting Senate races as well.
“Vice-President Harris can lose Pennsylvania and still win 270 electoral votes by winning North Carolina and Nevada. But Harris will have a very low probability of winning the presidency if she loses Michigan or Wisconsin,” the report highlights.
“As such, the map is now shifting back to Trump’s favor, after two months of Harris being in the driver’s seat,” it added.
The core of Harris’ electoral strategy was focused on securing the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. However, with polls in Michigan and Wisconsin favoring Trump, the map points out that the trajectory is headed toward Trump.
Harris has gained some advantage from the recent decline in the Misery Index, which has helped narrow Trump’s lead on economic issues. Yet, in key swing states, particularly those with a strong manufacturing base and union presence, Trump has been more visible and vocal on issues like jobs and the threat posed by China, areas where Harris has been less prominent.
Moreover, the recent turmoil in the Middle East has rekindled tensions in the Arab-American community.
“Some voters may not leave Harris for Trump, but they could move to 3rd party candidates or not vote at all,” Strategas notes.
The firm emphasizes that Trump’s message is “becoming more powerful in the states that matter.” While Harris has benefitted from an improving economy, her focus on the “Four Corner” media strategy, which aims to avoid major public commitments, appears to have reached its limits.
The current Vice President has been forced to make more public appearances, but these have failed to win over undecided voters.
Though small shifts are occurring on the margins, the race remains tight. Strategas said that “most of the country remains evenly divided,” but for now, “Trump is regaining control of the electoral college map.”
