The Future of the Tartus Naval Base Post-Russian Expulsion

Against the backdrop of the fall of the Assad regime, the Tartus Naval Facility, leased for over six decades by Russia, came under increased pressure from the new Syrian government. The Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham-led government (HTS) fought the Russian military in Syria for over a decade and, with such, refused to allow Russian forces to stay after Assad’s fall.

The fall of the Assad regime and expulsion of Russian forces not only gives a chance for Syrians to recover after decades of hereditary dictatorship but also raises questions on the status of Tartus Naval Base. Strategically important, the question remains: who will use it in the future?

History of the Tartus Naval Facility

During the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union looked to place its naval assets in the Middle East to counter the US Sixth Fleet, which dominated the Mediterranean Sea. The Soviet Union, which was closely allied to Syria, signed a lease for a naval base in Tartus for its Mediterranean fleet in 1971.

Against the backdrop of the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation would inherit and continue to lease out the facility. Russia continued naval operations to support its Wagner Group/Afrika Corps mercenaries for their illicit activities in Africa, along with bombing Syrian rebels during the civil war.

The Kremlin used Tartus as a major staging point for the illicit oil trade, also known as the “shadow fleet,” to evade global sanctions. It also exported grain from the Naval Base.

Fall of Assad and Collapse of the Syrian Military

In late November 2024, after the Israeli military decimated Iran’s proxy militias, and Russia became preoccupied and overextended in their invasion of Ukraine, Syrian rebels, led by HTS, conducted a lightning offensive in Syria.

Assad’s Baathist forces, already depleted and unorganized, without Iranian and Russian protection and, without such, were routed. It would only take 12 days for the disorganized Syrian army to collapse fully, and Assad would flee Syria to Russia with Russian military protection.

Unsuccessful Negotiations by Russia and Destruction of Syrian Naval Remnants

During the Syrian army collapse, Russian forces became stranded with several thousand tons of vital equipment along the coastlines of Latakia and Tartus. Due to Russia’s carpet bombing and ‘double tap’ methods in Syria, their indefinite status at the Tartus Naval Facility was now up in the air.

Russian heavy transportation ships were stranded off the coast for several days without permission to dock at the Tartus port to retrieve equipment and military personnel. Furthermore, Russia’s sole Kilo-class submarine in the region departed, signaling further uncertainty about the Kremlin’s naval lease post-withdrawal under the HTS-led transitional government.

Simultaneously evacuating equipment from the Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia province, Israel, fearing regime weapons could fall into the hands of Islamist groups, destroyed the remnants of the Syrian navy along the coastline. All naval vessels owned by Syria, including radar systems and the majority of their weapons depots, were destroyed—rendering what’s left of Tartus’ future up in the air.

On Jan. 19, 2025, the provincial government in Tartus province terminated the agreement with Stroytransgaz, a Russian engineering company that was in charge of developing the Tartus Naval Facility at the Kremlin’s behest, further cementing the end of the lease.

Potential Future Uses of the Facility

Tartus’ vacant status will now be a desire for various regional powers that could project their influence in the Mediterranean. Unless Russia pulls a Hail Mary and renegotiates a contract for Tartus, several potential countries could step up in the future to negotiate a lease on the naval base.

Both Italy and Greece could make potential diplomatic negotiations to lease the base as a future port for NATO as the US wishes for other members of the defensive alliance to step up spending and patrols. However, Greece and Italy would need financial backing from the other thirty NATO countries to sustain the base, making potential plans into a perpetual discussion.

Turkey would potentially be the greatest opportunity to lease the Tartus Naval Facility in the future. Not only did the Turkish government and intelligence apparatus play a leading role in overthrowing Assad, but Ankara has also taken a guardian role in Syria’s future.

Ankara is set to make long-term investments in Syria, including energy and military cooperation. With Turkey’s influence in the country not seen since the late Ottoman Empire, Ankara could negotiate a future lease in Tartus.

Ukraine, with growing NATO cooperation, could potentially lease the Tartus Naval Base in the future. Like Russia, Ukraine is a major grain exporter, and with Moscow suspending grain exports to Damascus, Kyiv promptly filled the void, enhancing relations with the transitional government.

Despite not having a navy due to Russia’s aggression, Ukraine is currently close with Turkey, which is helping the former rebuild a naval force. With Turkey already taking a de facto guardian role over Syria, Kyiv could work with Ankara for a joint lease if Damascus were to allow it, continuing global grain exports while enhancing relations.

Strategically important, the Tartus Naval Facility in Syria remains highly sought after and lucrative for regional hegemony and force projection. Nevertheless, the international community will need to understand any future lease will have to go through Damascus first, and Syrians will remember those who helped them or left them to die during their tribulations at the hands of the Assad regime.

[Imagery from LANCE FIRMS operated by NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS)]

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.