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In today’s global and regional political landscape, the Sunni-Shiite divide cannot be viewed solely through a religious or sectarian lens. Instead, it reflects a more complex geopolitical reality. Political entanglements have created a situation in which Sunnis and Shiites cannot be regarded as unified blocs. Neither group is monolithic, and no sect has remained confined strictly within the boundaries of Islam. Even within Sunni or Shiite sects, political contexts often reveal a lack of cohesion and a blending of ideological positions. At the geopolitical level, the issue extends far beyond religion.
In the Middle East and North Africa, the Sunni bloc is largely aligned with a broader coalition led by the Christian-majority United States and includes the Jewish state of Israel. However, not all Sunni groups fall within this camp. For example, factions associated with the Muslim Brotherhood have aligned, to some extent, with the Shiite bloc. Qatar, a Sunni country, is a notable case: while globally aligned with the U.S.-led bloc, it leans toward the Shiite bloc on certain regional issues. This was evident during the Gaza war and in its past tensions with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. In addition, Turkey — despite being a NATO member and a U.S. ally — has become an opponent of the Sunni bloc in the region under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, due to his support for Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.
The Sunni bloc includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Israel and Kurdish entities such as the Kurdistan Region and Rojava. Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Qatar—despite strong relations with the United States—have often been at odds with this bloc due to their support for political Islam and ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. However, despite Turkey and Qatar agreeing on most regional issues, their relationships with Iran differ. Qatar’s relationship with Iran is generally cooperative on certain matters and non-confrontational, while Turkey’s ties with Iran are marked by more intense competition and regional rivalry.
Strategically, this bloc is aligned with the United States, NATO and much of Europe. The U.S.-led alliance in the region includes most Sunni Arab states, Israel, and Kurdish political entities.
By contrast, the Shiite bloc is not made up exclusively of Shiite groups. It includes Sunni organizations such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Qatar, while maintaining a strategic partnership with the United States, has shown support for this bloc on selected issues. Globally, the Shiite bloc is more closely aligned with China and Orthodox Christian Russia. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, a Shiite-majority country, is geopolitically aligned with the U.S.-Israeli-Sunni bloc and often stands in opposition to the Shiite bloc.
From a realist perspective, it is misleading to interpret these alliances through purely religious or sectarian lenses. In the Gaza conflict, groups like Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood have framed the war as a jihad—an Islamic holy war against Israel. Yet Hamas counts among its allies Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran. According to official data, the so-called Axis of Resistance has caused more Arab deaths and displacement—particularly in Syria and Yemen over the past 15 years—than Israel has throughout its history. At the same time, the bloc aligned with Iran has close ties to China and Russia, despite both nations pursuing harsh policies against their own Muslim minorities in Xinjiang and Chechnya.
Religion and sectarianism are not the primary forces driving these dynamics. Geopolitical interests play the decisive role. In this context, religion and sect function as tools—alongside military power, media influence, economic leverage, technology and energy resources—for advancing strategic goals.
This understanding challenges the widely cited “clash of civilizations” theory, which argues that global blocs form based on shared culture, religion and civilizational identity, and that these blocs either cooperate or clash accordingly. In practice, the theory does not hold. Some Muslims—both Sunnis and Shiites—are aligned with the U.S.-Israeli bloc, while others—also both Sunnis and Shiites—are aligned with the China-Russia bloc. This demonstrates that there is no such thing as an “Islamic civilization bloc” based solely on religion or culture. Shiite-majority Iran, for example, aligns with Christian-majority Armenia, despite tensions with Shiite-majority Azerbaijan. Sunni-majority UAE cooperates with Israel in countering the influence of both Shiite Iran and Sunni Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood. A state’s alignment with a particular bloc typically depends on regime change or shifting strategic priorities. Prior to 1979, Iran was aligned with the United States. After the Islamic Revolution, it shifted into the anti-American bloc—despite remaining a Shiite-majority country in both periods.
[DinajGao, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]
Ranj Tofik is a Kurdish researcher, a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Policy Council, and a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of Warsaw, Poland. The views expressed in this article are those of the author.
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