Market Data 
- The Pound Sterling rises to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar as the latter trades with caution due to uncertainty over the status of US-China trade talks.
- Beijing keeps denying Trump’s claim of having trade discussions with China’s Xi.
- The BoE is almost certain to cut interest rates next week.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) jumps higher to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s North American session. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously as investors try to seek clarity about whether the United States (US) and China are actively discussing the terms and conditions of a trade deal.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades inside Friday’s range around 99.50.
On Monday, China stated clearly that there have been no trade discussions between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. China’s denial of recent talks between the two leaders comes after Trump has claimed that Xi has called him, refraining from commenting on the timing and topics discussed.
Additionally, investors appear to be on the sidelines as they wait for a slew of US economic data releases this week., Traders will focus on a string of employment-related, economic, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and inflation data, which will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting on May 6-7.
Fed officials have signaled that monetary policy adjustments would be appropriate only if they get greater clarity on the economic outlook under the leadership of Trump.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling starts the week on a positive note
- The Pound Sterling outperforms its peers at the start of the week despite firm expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% in the policy meeting on May 8. BoE dovish bets have escalated amid fears that the new tariff policy by the US will weaken economic growth in the United Kingdom (UK), and as inflation pressures seem to be subsiding.
- Last week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the need to consider the trade war risk by the central bank. “We do have to take very seriously the risk to growth,” Bailey said on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Spring Meetings in Washington. However, he ruled out the possibility of an economic recession.
- Additionally, BoE policymaker Megan Greene has also expressed concerns over “weak productivity” and “risks to the labor market” due to an increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes, in a discussion with the Atlantic Council think tank on Friday. When asked about the impact of Trump’s tariff policy on UK inflation, Greene says she expects the potential trade war to be “net disinflationary” for the economy.
- Market participants seem to be pricing in that the trade war between the US and China will be limited, but the stand-off could hit European economies, given the low-cost competitive advantage of Beijing. China is expected to sell its products into European economies if the US shows reluctance to buy them. Such a scenario would be unfavorable for the UK business activity.
Technical analysis: Pound Sterling moves higher to near 1.3350
The Pound Sterling rises to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar in Monday’s European session. The pair gains as the overall outlook remains bullish, with all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) sloping higher.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds to near 65.00 after cooling down to 60.00, indicating a resurgence in the upside trend.
On the upside, the psychological level of 1.3500 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area.
