Pakistan’s Security—Strategic Deadlock – The Geopolitics

Some would argue that the statements by Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer on December 19 on Pakistan’s “emerging threat” of long-range ballistic missile program were nonetheless a fatal blow to Islamabad’s’ strategic status in the region. After years of security collaboration between Washington and Islamabad under the label of “The Global War on Terror” against ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and its affiliates (with various ups and downs), it seems that a new area of relations has come, just a few weeks before Trump returns to the White House. For decades, America has reconciled with the fact that Pakistan possesses a nuclear capability solely to maintain deterrence against its historical enemy, India. However, the time changed, as Finer stated, “Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States.” In other words, some of Pakistan’s nuclear missiles would be a threat to the USA.

Unfortunately, Washington’s attitude is not the only security problem Pakistan faces in those days. Actually, it is a direct result of Pakistan’s recent deterioration in its regional power and status. Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, following the American withdrawal, Pakistan has faced a sharp growing trend of militant attacks inside its borders inspired and sometimes assisted by the radical regime in Afghanistan. Moreover, the continuous political instability in Pakistan led to another decline in its struggling economy, as many projects were delayed and foreign debts piled up. Chaos invaded the streets, and the country became more and more dependent on China’s goodwill to pull it out of the mud.

The Taliban Problem

Since its formation in Pakistani Madrasas (religious Sunni schools), the Taliban has had close ties with Islamabad, publicly, before the American invasion and mostly secretly after it, which many labeled as the Pakistani “double game.” The relationship with the Taliban gave Pakistan strategic significance in the American eyes as a mediating power on the one hand and a security partner on the other hand. However, Pakistan, via its secret intelligence agency ISI, managed to please all sides to ensure its beneficial relationship with the USA while they are with “boots on the ground” and to ensure its strategic leverage on the Taliban after the Americans eventually withdrew from Afghanistan. 

Surprisingly, plans did not go well for Islamabad, as the Taliban turned their back on their historical allies and started assisting the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), a brother militant group, in attacking Pakistani soil. Initially, Islamabad used coercive diplomacy towards the Taliban, threatening the de-facto Afghan regime to prevent the TTP from using Afghanistan as a haven for cross-border attacks. After diplomacy failed, Pakistan moved into deterrence by action and conducted airstrikes against TTP targets inside Afghanistan. However, the pro-Taliban attacks in Pakistan have just increased over time, leading to thousands of casualties of citizens and Pakistani security forces. On December 21, for instance, 14 Pakistani soldiers were killed in a terrorist attack at a checkpoint in South Waziristan District, apparently conducted by the TTP. Just a few weeks before, on November 21, 41 people, including civilians, were killed in another attack close to the Afghan border in Kurram.

Furthermore, the Taliban does not show any intentions to stop and argues Pakistan should stop blaming Kabul for its internal problems. Meanwhile, other militant groups identified the opportunity to challenge Islamabad. Baloch resistance groups like the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Khorasan branch of ISIS (ISIS-K) conducted multiple attacks in different areas of Pakistan, emphasizing the difficulty of the security forces in dealing with internal and regional security challenges. Notably, even neighboring Iran tested Pakistan’s sovereignty after it conducted an “anti-terror” attack inside Pakistan’s Baluchistan province in January 2024 without any permission. 

China

The downfall of the Pakistani regional power balance and failure of deterrence weren’t the only challenges the TTP, BLA, ISIS-K, and other militant groups brought upon Islamabad, as some of the attacks aimed against Chinese workers and projects led to severe crises with Beijing. China operates one of its flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Pakistan. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), estimated at 62$ billion in investments, intends to connect China to the Middle East through the Pakistani Gwadar port and promote bilateral and regional trade, transpiration, and many other developments. For Pakistan, CPEC is essential for maintaining the economy above the water. Notably, Pakistan’s delays in some of CPEC’s projects increased Pakistan’s 16$ billion debt to China, which continues to grow as the economy struggles to recover, even after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) back-and-forth bailout packages. Therefore, the lack of ability of Pakistan to secure the CPEC project and the Chinese in Pakistan combined with Islamabad’s dependence on Beijing threatened to damage Pakistan’s economy even more, but more importantly, led to an intervention in Pakistan’s internal sovereignty by China. If the situation will be on the brink for Beijing, it could send security forces to secure its projects in Pakistan, and possibly Islamabad could not have anything to do with it.

India

In the meantime, India leverages the situation in Pakistan to get a better grip on the region and, specifically, Afghanistan. Despite the cultural and religious closeness between Afghanistan and Pakistan, India’s growing engagement with the Taliban changed the balance of powers and threatened to open a new front between the two nuclear rivals if the trend expanded. Although it is not likely in the near future, it seems that it will put Pakistan under stress and can increase the flames as Pakistan pushes against the wall. Any balance transitions between two nuclear rivals are a threat to global security, and Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile program may be a warning light captured by the USA. In the days of uncertainty in the Middle East with the takeover of rebels in Syria and following the Taliban takeover, the world should not deny a similar act could appear in the unstable South Asian nuclear power. Although observers argue that the new Trump administration does not favor Pakistan, it would be essential for Washington to get involved in this way or another for a more stable world.

[Photo by HO/ISPR/AFP]

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.