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US and Israeli officials are voicing increased optimism about the prospects of a ceasefire and hostage deal being agreed to end the war in Gaza as the loved ones of hostages being held by Hamas say that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must take the deal on offer.
Efforts to secure an agreement have been ongoing for months and picked up renewed momentum in late May after US President Joe Biden laid out the details of a plan to bring home the hostages and eventually bring about an end to the war.
Now, as the Israeli Prime Minister prepares to deliver a high-stakes speech to Congress on Wednesday and meet with Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday, US officials claim a final deal is within reach. For the families of the hostages held more than nine months in Gaza, there is no time to wait.
On Monday, Biden said he believed the different parties were on the “verge of being able to” secure a deal to bring home the hostages and end the war. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday that they are “inside the 10-yard line and driving toward the goal line in getting an agreement that would produce a ceasefire, get the hostages home, and put us on a better track to trying to build lasting peace and stability.”
US officials insist that Israel and Hamas have both agreed to the broad framework of a deal, but specifics and crucial technicalities need to be hammered out. Mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar have been leading efforts to finalize those details.
A source familiar with the negotiations told CNN Tuesday that an Israeli delegation that was expected to leave on Thursday to transmit the latest Israeli response to the mediators is likely to delay its trip until at least Friday as a result of Netanyahu’s meeting with Biden being postponed until Thursday afternoon. The Israeli prime minister wants to meet with Biden before the Israeli delegation formally transmits its response to the mediators, the source said.
The Israeli response is expected to include Netanyahu’s eleventh-hour demands regarding barring armed men from northern Gaza and Israeli control of the Philadelphi corridor – key sticking points in the negotiations. If Hamas agrees to those demands, a deal is likely to follow.
“If Hamas will say yes, there will be a deal,” the source said.
The latest Israeli response will also coincide with the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, going into recess next week. That will make it harder for any right-wing opponents of the deal to move to collapse the government. US officials have been sensitive to the Knesset recess as they remain convinced that politics are at play for Netanyahu back in Israel.
Still, as Israel prepares to transmit its response, it has become increasingly clear to multiple parties involved that clinching a ceasefire now depends on the Israeli prime minister and his government.
“It’s really Israel’s decision,” an official familiar with the talks told CNN.
There’s real concern among the families of Israeli hostages as to whether Netanyahu is willing to make a deal to end the brutal war, after numerous false dawns suggesting a ceasefire was close.
Aviva Siegel, a former hostage whose husband, Keith, is still a hostage, told CNN Tuesday that Netanyahu “has to take it and not continue the war.”
“He needs to stop the war for kids to come home and the hostages to come home. They are much more important than continuing the war. They’ve suffered. I’ve been there. I know what the situation is. I know what they’re going through,” said Siegel, who was freed after 51 days in Hamas captivity.
There are believed to be 116 people who were abducted during the October 7 Hamas attack remaining in Gaza – 44 of them are believed to be deceased. The families said ahead of Netanyahu’s address to Congress that they expect to hear the Israeli prime minister tell Congress that he has agreed to a deal – anything less, they said, is a failure.
The families praised Biden’s leadership on the efforts to bring their loved one’s home but now that the US president has announced he will not seek reelection, they are urging him to ratchet up the pressure to finish the deal – something they say could be a key part of his legacy. The families are expected to meet with Biden and with Netanyahu on Thursday.
“Not only should you not all collectively take your foot off the gas but put it on even harder and make sure that part of your legacy, Mr. President, is that you get the credit for saving the lives of as many of these hostages as possible,” said Jon Polin, the father of Hersh Goldberg-Polin.
Indeed, the conflict in the Middle East has been a consuming issue for the US president since the October 7 attack. Whether it comes to an end before Biden’s first term will be consequential for his predecessor – whether that is Donald Trump, or possibly Harris, whom Biden has endorsed for the Democratic nomination. When Harris meets with Netanyahu at the White House this week, she plans to convey to the Israeli leader that it is time for the war to end, a Harris aide said.
Many Israelis, including family members of hostages, are convinced Netanyahu doesn’t want a deal, instead preferring to extend the war and thereby his grip on power.
“We expect from our prime minister to cease all stalling, to cease torpedoing any hope for a negotiated return of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza to stop the suffering of the people of Gaza,” said Jonathan Dekel-Chen, the father of Sagui Dekel-Chen. “We expect to hear him declare that Israel is going to sign this imperfect, imperfect agreement with Satan, meaning Hamas. But it is a national necessity and anything less than that would be a total failure of his leadership.”
Netanyahu, who met on Monday in Washington with families of hostages, said his Israeli government is “determined to return everyone.”
“The conditions to bring them back are ripe, for the simple reason that we are putting very strong pressure on Hamas. We are seeing a certain change, and I think this change will continue to grow,” the Israeli prime minister said.
However, Daniel Neutra, whose brother Omer is being held hostage, said that “the urgency of the matter did not seem to resonate with” Netanyahu at Monday night’s meeting.
‘Remaining issues’
On Monday, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that they “have significantly narrowed the disagreements between the parties,” but there are “a few remaining issues that need to be resolved.”
“We continue discussions with the other mediators, and with the Government of Israel to try to reach resolution, but we don’t have that yet, and I don’t have any kind of forecast about when we might come to one,” Miller said.
According to an official from a mediating country, the latest proposal from Hamas earlier this month “was very close” to the Israeli position from late May so when Hamas responded, it was believed that Israel’s reaction “would be positive and ready to move forward” with technical teams dispatched to iron out the final details.
Negotiators are currently awaiting a response from Israel to a Hamas document received on July 3, according to that official, and recent Israeli responses have been unexpected and unclear, the official said, pointing to Israel’s reneging on a previous, critical position about allowing the unrestricted return of Palestinians to northern Gaza during a pause in the fighting.
There’s also significant debate around the Philadelphi corridor and Rafah border crossing, both located between Egypt and Gaza. Netanyahu has argued Israel troops will not withdraw from the nine-mile-long Philadelphi corridor while Hamas has insisted on a full eventual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and their response, according to a source familiar, is expected to stick to that demand.
A central sticking point has been whether a first pause in the fighting would flow seamlessly into a permanent ceasefire, something Israel has rejected. The Biden framework – and a UN resolution that followed – says the first phase will continue as long discussions do over a second phase. That, theoretically, could mean talks could break down and fighting resumes.
Meanwhile, the situation on the ground in Gaza remains dire and US officials involved in the humanitarian and security efforts have grown increasingly frustrated by Israeli aggression in recent weeks. There remains no effective communication between the Israel Defense Forces and humanitarian groups, and just in the last week a UN convoy was shot at by the IDF. US officials believe it is possible that Israelis are seeking to put maximum pressure on Hamas ahead of a deal.
If a first phase of the ceasefire is launched, Hamas is expected to release just over 30 hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Biden’s natioanl security advisor Jake Sullivan acknowledged on Friday that the exact numbers and type of Palestinian prisoners to be released need to be finalized. There is still discussion around the number of vetoes Israel would have over Palestinian prisoners Hamas wants released, with an expectation that Israel would oppose more hardened prisoners serving longer – or life – sentences, according to details provided by the official from a mediating country, who was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.
As negotiations on the deal continue, there are also ongoing discussions about security, humanitarian aid, and governance once an agreement is put into place. Those discussions will continue with Netanyahu this week.
US and Egyptian officials have begun preparing the flood of humanitarian aid that would enter Gaza if a ceasefire deal goes into effect. Egypt has worked to pre-position nearly 200,000 metric tons of supplies in the northern Egyptian city of el-Arish, one official familiar with the matter said, and talks to prepare for the enormous logistical effort have intensified in the last week.
“What we can’t have is an agreement that’s followed by some kind of void that will either be filled, if it’s there, by Hamas coming back, which is unacceptable; by Israel prolonging its occupation, which they say they don’t want to do and is unacceptable; or just having a vacuum that’s filled by lawlessness, that’s filled by chaos, which we see in so many parts of Gaza right now, which is also inimical to actually helping people who desperately need it,” Blinken said Friday. “So making sure that we have a plan in place, which we’ve been working on also every single day – with Arab partners, with Israel, with many others for governance, for security, for humanitarian assistance, for reconstruction – that’s critical.”
