Market Data 
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy will win their respective primaries in Montana, CNN projects, setting up what’s likely to be one of the hardest-fought races in the battle for control of the Senate.
Sheehy, a businessman and retired Navy SEAL, had the backing of former President Donald Trump and much of the GOP establishment, including Senate Republicans’ campaign arm. He is also pumping his personal wealth into the race – through May 15, he had loaned his campaign about $2 million.
Sheehy effectively cemented the Republican nomination when hard-line Rep. Matt Rosendale ended his primary bid just days after entering the race in February.
First elected in 2006, Tester is the last-remaining Democrat in nonjudicial statewide office in Montana. He has survived tough races before, but his bid for a third term is sure to be among the nation’s most competitive — particularly with Trump, who won the state by 16 points in 2020, at the top of the ticket. Since 2012, only one senator has won reelection in a presidential year from a state that voted for the opposite party’s White House nominee – Maine Republican Susan Collins in 2020.
The advertising war between Tester and Sheehy has already heated up in Montana.
Sheehy this week became the first Republican to go on the air with an ad linking his Democratic rival to Trump’s recent conviction in his New York hush money trial.
“They want to throw Trump in jail, trying to rob Americans of their choice in the election, and Jon Tester is standing right by their side,” a narrator says in the spot.
Over the weekend, Tester became the latest Democrat to launch a campaign ad highlighting burn pit legislation from 2022, an effort to support veterans that’s become a go-to messaging tool for some of the party’s most vulnerable members this year.
The new ad highlights the PACT Act, which was enacted in 2022 with bipartisan support and included provisions to support veterans who were exposed to toxic burn pits during their military service.
“Montana veterans know, Jon Tester stands up for us,” the ad says, featuring a crowd of servicemembers appearing with the senator. The ad notes that Tester helped “veterans with toxic exposure finally get the care we need.”
Sheehy, a Minnesota native and first-time candidate, has also been airing ads that seek to introduce himself to Montana and talk up his business record. Those efforts come as Democrats have attacked him as a carpetbagger and criticized his business practices. Multiple outside groups have been targeting Sheehy on TV, running ads that accuse him of threatening access to public lands and operating a “hobby ranch.”
“Tim Sheehy’s got no Montana roots and no idea what we’re all about,” one ad says.
Sheehy has defended his record, saying in a spot that he “built a Montana manufacturing business with zero dependence on China.”
“What’s Tester done? On Tester’s watch, China has stolen our jobs, and Chinese ownership of Montana farmland has soared,” he says in the ad.
Foreshadowing the highly competitive race to come, both parties have major fall advertising reservations on the books in Montana. Including campaigns and outside groups, the total is over $112 million, with about $56 million for each party. That ranks second among all Senate contests this year, trailing only Ohio, the other state where a Democratic incumbent is seeking reelection in a state Trump twice carried.
