Market Data 
Arizona Republican Kari Lake will win her Senate primary Tuesday, CNN projects, to face off against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in one of this fall’s most important races in the battle for control of the chamber.
The two are competing for the seat of retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.
Lake, who had the endorsement of the Senate Republican campaign arm, is projected to defeat Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and neuroscientist Elizabeth Reye. Lamb had just over 40% of the Republican primary vote Tuesday night – a potential warning sign for Lake as she heads into the general election needing to consolidate the GOP base and reach out to independent voters. Gallego faced no opposition for the Democratic nomination Tuesday.
Lake, a former local news anchor who lost the 2022 governor’s race in her first bid for political office, is a strident ally of former President Donald Trump. She is best known nationally for pushing lies about widespread election fraud – backing an audit of the 2020 presidential race and fighting in court to overturn her 2022 loss to Democrat Katie Hobbs.
Gallego, a retired Marine who represents a deep-blue Phoenix-area seat, launched his campaign in early 2023, long before Sinema announced her retirement. Sinema was elected to the seat in 2018 as a Democrat – the first from the party to win a Senate contest in Arizona in 30 years.
This year’s Senate race, like many others across the political map, has been shaken up by President Joe Biden’s late decision to forgo reelection and Vice President Kamala Harris’ emergence as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Republicans have focused their attacks on Harris over her handling of border security – an issue especially important in Arizona. However, polls have shown Harris with stronger appeal than Biden among young and non-White voters, which could help Gallego in the fast-growing Sun Belt state.
Many GOP donors and strategists have expressed doubts over Lake’s chances of winning this fall, citing her feuds with fellow Republicans, including the family of the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, and her refusal to accept past election results. A recent Times (UK)/SAY24/YouGov poll found Gallego leading Lake 48% to 41% among registered Arizona voters. But if Trump does well enough in Arizona, he might be able to carry Lake to victory with him.
Gallego, a onetime member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has sought to define himself as a moderate through his early television ads, touting his military service and efforts to lower costs for families.
Gallego enters the general election with a financial edge over Lake. He reported $8.2 million in his campaign coffers on July 10 compared with his opponent’s $2.1 million.
CNN’s Simone Pathe contributed to this report.
