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As the 2025 NFL Draft rapidly approaches, team executives will be tasked with making crucial leadership decisions that will shape the futures of their franchises. Many Super Bowl championship rosters have been built by front offices through the draft. The ultimate decision-making authority for these selections typically rests with the general manager (GM), who essentially oversees most personnel-related transactions. NFL GMs have a multifaceted role and are primarily responsible for managing free agency, facilitating trades, and directing draft strategies.
In the NFL, a GM’s job security is often tied to their performance in the draft, particularly based on their first-round selections. Each April, there are consensus first-round draft choices made, along with surprise picks that shock analysts and fans. Franchises cannot afford to miss on Day One draft choices, and the stakes are even higher with top-10 picks. The average tenure for a GM is around three years, during which they typically receive at least three drafts and one quarterback change to demonstrate their effectiveness.
The Importance of the Quarterback
Today’s NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and salaries reflect this reality, with quarterbacks being the highest-paid positions. Currently, the five highest-paid players in the NFL are Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys, who earns $60 million annually, followed by Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers, and Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars, each making $55 million per year, according to Yahoo Sports. All of these quarterbacks were drafted by their current teams. Although Burrow, Lawrence, and Allen were former top-10 draft picks, Love was selected later in the first round, and Prescott was chosen in the fourth round. The value placed on acquiring a franchise quarterback was clearly evident in last year’s draft, where five quarterbacks were selected among the top ten picks.
Since the 1998 NFL Draft, widely considered one of the most memorable drafts in history, quarterbacks have been chosen with the first overall pick a total of 20 times over a span of 27 years. The 1998 NFL Draft was particularly noteworthy due to the selection of several elite Hall of Fame players, as well as some monumental miscalculations. Quarterback Peyton Manning was the first overall pick by the Indianapolis Colts and went on to become one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. The majority of personnel directors and scouts rated Manning only slightly higher than Ryan Leaf, a physically gifted quarterback from Washington State who was selected second overall by the San Diego Chargers but was out of the league in less than three years due to poor play and immature behavior. Another frequently mentioned selection in 1998 was talented wide receiver Randy Moss from Marshall. Drafted by the Minnesota Vikings, Moss was a projected top-five pick but fell to 21st overall due to concerns about his character. In 2007, he broke the all-time NFL record for receiving touchdowns in a single season and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2018.
Perhaps the unpredictable nature of the draft makes the event most intriguing. The 2000 NFL Draft was unusual because there was not a quarterback selected until the 18th pick. Notably, six quarterbacks were chosen before Tom Brady was drafted by the New England Patriots in the sixth round as the 199th overall pick. Brady is widely regarded as one of the most accomplished athletes in sports history and serves as a prime example of how front offices can overlook exceptional talent. In 2005, California quarterback Aaron Rodgers fell from a projected Top-5 pick to 24th overall due to concerns about his unconventional throwing motion, which some believed might not translate well to the NFL. Of course, this proved to be a significant misjudgment, which also applies to the Raiders’ selection of LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, widely considered as one of the most disappointing draft choices.
More recently, the 2017 NFL Draft highlighted the risks that organizations are sometimes willing to take in their pursuit of a franchise quarterback. In 2017, the Chicago Bears traded their third-round pick (No. 67), a fourth-round pick (No. 111), and a 2018 third-round pick to move up just one spot from the third to the second overall selection. The Bears invested substantial draft capital for Mitchell Trubisky, a quarterback from North Carolina who started only one season in college and has struggled with consistency in his NFL career. It turned out differently for the Kansas City Chiefs, who selected Patrick Mahomes with the 10th overall pick. He has since led the Chiefs to multiple Super Bowl titles and has already established himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.
During the 2021 NFL Draft, former Bears GM Ryan Pace made another attempt to land a franchise quarterback. He traded up from the 20th to the 11th overall pick, relinquishing a fifth-round pick in 2021, a first-round pick in 2022, and a fourth-round pick in 2022. Consequently, Pace was dismissed following Fields’ underwhelming start with the Bears. In 2021, the San Francisco 49ers selected quarterback Trey Lance with the second overall pick, who is no longer with the team. Ironically, the 49ers drafted their current starter, Brock Purdy, a year later with the final pick of the 2022 draft.
Quarterbacks once again took center stage in the last two consecutive drafts. In 2023, the Carolina Panthers selected Bryce Young as the first overall pick, choosing him over C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans, who won the 2023 Rookie of the Year award. Last year, the Chicago Bears chose Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels, who subsequently won the 2024 Rookie of the Year award and led the Washington Commanders to an appearance in the NFC Championship game.
Measurables vs Intangibles
The magnitude of these decisions and their unpredictable outcomes highlight the extensive work involved in preparing for the draft. This preparation includes comprehensive film analysis, player testing, and the evaluation of both physical and psychological traits. Executives, scouts, and staff often attend events like the Senior Bowl to closely observe and assess talent. Analytics now play a pivotal role in predictive analysis and value assessment, in conjunction with the measurements taken during the NFL Scouting Combine and on Pro Days.
Measurements do not always tell the story. Is below-average arm length for an offensive tackle indicative of poor future performance in the NFL, even if the player demonstrates impressive skills on film against strong competition and is regarded as a polished prospect? Some argue that intangible traits have a significant impact on performance predictions, rather than relying solely on quantifiable factors. Tom Brady did not standout at the NFL combine, but possessed rare intangible traits such as leadership, adaptability, and work ethic. On the other hand, Tim Tebow was considered an exceptional leader and teammate at Florida, yet there were scouts that felt he lacked the throwing mechanics to excel as an NFL quarterback.
Although many of the top prospects will walk across the stage this Thursday in Green Bay, high-quality NFL players can be found throughout the draft board. So, who are this year’s draft gems? Could there be a steal or two? What position groups are particularly strong? These topics and more will continue to be discussed leading up to the draft. The pressure is mounting for NFL front offices, and the picks are nearly in.
