Market Data 
- Bitcoin drops to $74,500, a four-month low, amid Trump’s tariff-driven market wipeout.
- Technical analysis warns of a potential decline to $69,000 if the 50-week EMA support fails.
- Historical patterns suggest a $50,000 target if Bitcoin enters a prolonged bear market.
Bitcoin fell to a four-month low of $80,134, currently trading at $74,500, as investors dumped risk assets following US President Donald Trump’s renewed push for global tariffs over the weekend.
The move triggered a staggering $9.5 trillion wipeout in global equity markets, heightening concerns about a potential US recession.
The cryptocurrency’s decline mirrors a broader sell-off, with Bitcoin’s performance tracked alongside the TOTAL crypto market cap, S&P 500, and MSCI World index over the past year, according to TradingView data.
Risk investors appear spooked, leaving crypto market participants uncertain about how low Bitcoin’s price might drop in the near future.
Technical levels signal potential deeper correction
Bitcoin is currently testing a critical technical threshold—the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA), historically a dividing line between bull and bear phases.
Market analyst Ted Pillows and other chartists suggest Bitcoin must reclaim the EMA, currently near $77,500, to avoid a deeper correction.
Failure to do so could see prices decline toward the $69,000–$70,000 range, aligning with 2021 cycle highs, with a further drop to $67,000—Michael Saylor’s average entry level—remaining possible.
The weekly BTC/USD price chart underscores this vulnerability.
Meanwhile, short-term support at $74,000 corresponds to a cost-basis cluster where over 50,000 BTC are held. These holders, who stopped moving coins after March 10, display confidence, not panic.
$69,000 emerges as “max pain” target with $50,000 possible
Investors hold approximately 175,000 BTC in the $74,000–$70,000 range, with the largest cluster at $71,600 holding 41,000 BTC, providing a potential buffer if $74,000 breaks.
Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price bands place the current average STH cost basis at $89,000, with the -1 standard deviation band at $69,000, a historical “max pain” zone where short-term investors capitulate during pullbacks. This level has often prompted long-term investors to step in, according to Glassnode data.
Historical patterns indicate that a decisive break below the 50-week EMA could lead to a prolonged bear market, potentially driving Bitcoin toward the 200-week EMA, currently positioned around $50,000.
The BTC/USD weekly price chart his risk, though no definitive bottom has been confirmed.
