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But at any moment Hezbollah could strike back with a massive missile and drone swarm attack that could devastate Israeli forces and rapidly escalate the conflict, say analysts.
The Iran-backed group likely has stockpiles of up to 200,000 missiles, according to a 2024 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
That may be enough to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system and inflict huge damage on the country’s cities and infrastructure, experts say.
“A war between Israel and Hezbollah, if it really goes into a war all out, will escalate very, very quickly,” William Wechsler, senior director of Middle East Programs at The Atlantic Council, told Business Insider.
If Hezbollah takes that step, countries, including the US, would rapidly be dragged into the conflict as it spread across the entire region. That could result in the total destruction of Hezbollah.
Israel’s dangerous bet
In the wake of the October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas and Israel’s subsequent occupation of Gaza, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah across Israel’s northern border have steadily intensified.
The Lebanon-based group has kept up the pressure on Israel in solidarity with Hamas, firing missiles over the border that have forced thousands of Israelis to flee. Meanwhile, Israel has retaliated with strikes on southern Lebanon.
All the while Israel’s allies, the US, have sought to head off a wider conflict while deploying more troops to the region to deter Iran and its allies.
But Israel is now taking the fight to Hezbollah, assassinating several of the group’s senior leaders in Beirut on Friday, and launching missile attacks that Lebanese health authorities say have killed around 550 people.
“Israel has made the decision to escalate,” said Wechsler, knowing that Hezbollah realizes that to respond with full force could trigger a chain of events resulting in its destruction.
What US involvement means
It was after the 2006 war with Israel, that Hezbollah started stockpiling weapons as a deterrent and a threat. With the help of Iran it obtained not just missiles, but precision-guided weapons and air defense systems.
But in a scenario where Hezbollah uses them to their most devastating effect — potentially killing tens of thousands of civilians, causing power blackouts, and devastating infrastructure — Israel Defense Forces would have the capacity to strike back and exact massive damage on Hezbollah in response, said Wechsler.
In the event of a full-blown war, “we assess that at least some” Iron Dome batteries “will be overwhelmed,” a senior US administration official told CNN in June. Two unnamed US officials told the publication that Israel believes the Iron Dome could be vulnerable, particularly in the north.
The IDF did not immediately respond to comment from BI.
The Iron Dome is one of the most advanced defense systems in operation today.
The system consists of an array of 10 mobile batteries that can be deployed across Israel. Each battery consists of three to four launchers carrying dozens of Tamir interceptor missiles and a sensitive radar, US military Iron Dome contractor Raytheon Technologies said.
Breaching the Iron Dome could start a cycle of violence, with the US likely stepping in to defend Israel and avenge the potential loss of American lives in a Hezbollah strike, he said.
Iran could then get involved, fearing the destruction of its most powerful and important proxy group, and using its huge regional network of militias to strike US bases and allies across the region, Weschler added.
It’s a chain of events Hezbollah and its backers in Tehran are likely highly wary of.
“The United States is not going to allow Israel to be put under existential threat. It’s not going to allow its partners in the Gulf to be put under existential threat,” said Wechsler.
“The risks [for Hezbollah means] that it makes much more sense logically for Hezbollah to back down, to go back to the status quo ante in some way,” he said.
One possibility, some reports say, is that Israel is “escalating to deescalate,” placing Hezbollah under intense pressure in order to secure a diplomatic agreement compelling it to step back further from Israel’s borders, enabling evacuated Israeli citizens to return.
For now, though, Hezbollah shows little sign of relenting, launching its first ever attack early Wednesday near Israel’s capital Tel Aviv, where a missile the militia said was intended to strike Mossad’s headquarters was intercepted by air defense.
It’s a warning shot of the group’s capabilities.
The danger of the unpredictable
But a huge danger is that the war could escalate in ways no-one predicts.
It’s unclear, for a start, exactly where Hezbollah’s red lines triggering a mass missile and drone attack on Israel are drawn. Some analysts are speculating that Israel is preparing for a new ground assault on southern Lebanon to drive back Hezbollah.
This could be one of the trigger for Hezbollah to use its missile arsenals. Or it could decide that Israel has already crossed the red line with its bombardment campaign, and be preparing an imminent strike.
“Just because it makes logical sense doesn’t mean it will happen,” Wechsler of Hezbollah’s incentives to act with restraint.
