Has Kazakhstan Advanced in Energy Security and Transit Potential?

2024 was an especially busy year for Kazakhstan as it sought to consolidate its position as a major link between Asia and Europe. In his September Address to the people of Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev outlined the country’s economic development priorities for the near future. While most initiatives were centered on domestic concerns, several carried significant international relevance, particularly in the areas of energy security, sustainable development, and solidifying Kazakhstan’s position as a major transit hub. The country has taken steps in this direction, although challenges remain.

Ongoing geopolitical issues have had an impact on Kazakhstan, particularly when it comes to economic challenges. However, these issues have also motivated the country to strengthen ties with other regions and play a role in global affairs. In 2024, Kazakhstan chaired six international organizations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Organization of Turkic States, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. It also hosted high-profile summits, including the SCO Summit in June.

The World Nomad Games, while primarily a cultural and sporting event, also carried political significance, as it reinforced Kazakhstan’s ties to its Turkic and nomadic heritage.

Kazakhstan’s growing global influence has supported its ambitions in energy security and transport logistics, two key areas that will shape the future of the Eurasian continent.

Nuclear Energy at the Core of Energy Security

In October, Kazakhstan held a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP). According to the official results, over 71% of voters supported the initiative. The issue of nuclear energy has long been under discussion, due to Kazakhstan’s wish to commit to sustainable development, despite its reliance on oil and gas. Although the country has significant oil reserves, it currently faces challenges in ensuring energy security. Due to rising global energy demand and climate change, Kazakhstan considers nuclear energy as a reliable, low-carbon solution to meet domestic and regional needs.

The major floods that took place in Kazakhstan in 2024 demonstrated the impact that climate change is having on Central Asia. As a result of these floods, thousands of people were displaced, and significant economic losses were reported. Consequently, the Kazakh government pushed the idea of the importance of transitioning to clean and sustainable energy sources. To provide housing for affected citizens, 5,767 residential homes were purchased on the real estate market, and repair work was fully completed on 9,156 houses. A total of 54.7 billion tenge was allocated to address these issues. Additionally, 2,680 private houses were constructed in a short period, costing 64 billion tenge. Given these expenses, the Kazakh government is keen to prevent a recurrence of such disasters in the future.

The plan to build a nuclear power plant can reduce Kazakhstan’s carbon footprint while contributing to energy resilience. The country has significant uranium reserves, which account for over 40% of global production. The Kazakh government hopes that the planned NPP will strengthen the domestic energy grid and position Kazakhstan as a key energy exporter, particularly to neighboring regions and Europe. This aligns with broader efforts to diversify energy exports and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

There is also a geopolitical dimension to which country or countries will build the NPP, as Russia, China, France, and potentially South Korea have expressed interest in participating. Adhering to its multi-vector foreign policy, the Kazakh government appears to be considering an international consortium involving partners from France, China, and Russia, spreading its cooperation in this critical field.

Bridging Asia and Europe

Kazakhstan’s geographical position makes it a natural transit hub for trade between Asia and Europe. In 2024, progress was made in expanding the country’s transport and logistics infrastructure, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, and the inauguration of a Transport and Logistics Center in Xi’an, China.

The TITR, which runs from China to Europe through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye, can be a viable alternative to traditional trade routes, which are dominated by Russia. Kazakhstan has heavily invested in developing this corridor. Positive results have been achieved in 2024. The volume of cargo transported through the TITR rose by 63% in the first 11 months of the year, reaching 4.1 million tonnes. By reducing delivery times, the TITR enhances regional connectivity and trade flows.

Kazakhstan’s collaboration with China is particularly significant in the transport and logistics sector. The Xi’an dry port, where Kazakhstan operates a terminal, manages up to 40% of container trains traveling from China to the European Union. This partnership not only enhances access to new markets for Kazakh exporters but also solidifies Kazakhstan’s role as a critical transit hub. Additionally, agreements with Uzbekistan to develop the Trans-Afghan route are paving the way for expanded trade opportunities with South Asia and beyond.

International stakeholders are supporting these trade routes. In January 2024, the European Union committed €10 billion to enhance interconnectivity in Central Asia. Additionally, the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development signed agreements totalling €1.47 billion with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Europe can gain better access to Asian markets if it continues to invest in this emerging route, while also reducing over-reliance on any single trade route.

Moreover, the World Bank has invested $650 million in the Transport Resilience and Connectivity Enhancement Program (TRACE), while the Asian Development Bank has contributed $300 million for the Kyzylorda-Zhezkazgan highway, which suggests that Kazakhstan is managing to successfully position itself as a strategic partner in transport and logistics.

Challenges and Opportunities in 2025

Kazakhstan has made strides in the spheres of energy security and transport and logistics. Yet, challenges remain. Nuclear energy provides a long-term solution, as the construction of a nuclear power plant will take several years. However, climate change is a current problem that impacts infrastructure and communities, necessitating adaptive strategies.

Additionally, ensuring that the benefits of the nuclear power plant extend to future generations while taking into consideration stringent safety and environmental standards will be important. Finally, while the country’s “balanced and pragmatic foreign policy” has served the country well so far, it will be interesting to observe how Kazakhstan continues to navigate its relations with major powers such as China, Russia, and the countries of the West.

Nevertheless, in 2025, the world will likely continue to grapple with energy transitions and shifting trade dynamics, particularly if geopolitical tensions between East and West persist. As a result, Kazakhstan will maintain its significance on the global stage.

[Photo by Radosław Drożdżewski, via Wikimedia Commons]

Professor Michael Rossi is a faculty member in the Department of Political Science at Long Island University, USA, and Director of the International Studies Program. He is also a University Instructor at Rutgers University, USA.