Market Data 
- Gold price continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Friday.
- Investors opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the US NFP.
- September Fed rate cut bets undermine the USD and lend support to the metal.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its consolidative price move during the Asian session on Friday and remains well within the striking distance of the highest level since June 21 touched earlier this week. The recent softer US macro data reaffirmed market bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting rates in September. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed near a three-week low and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
That said, the prevalent risk-on environment keeps a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the safe-haven Gold price. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US monthly employment details, due later today. The popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will influence expectations about the Fed’s future policy decision and in turn, help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the XAU/USD.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price traders remain on the sidelines ahead of the US NFP report
- Expectations for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle in September weigh on the US Dollar for the fourth straight day on Friday and continue to lend support to the non-yielding Gold price.
- The market bets were lifted by this week’s softer US macroeconomic releases, which pointed to signs of weakness in the labor market and a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the second quarter.
- That said, hawkish signals from a slew of influential Fed officials, along with the minutes of the June FOMC policy meeting, suggest that policymakers were still not confident about bringing down lending costs.
- Furthermore, the underlying bullish sentiment across the global equity markets holds back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the safe-haven precious metal ahead of the closely-watched US employment data.
- The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls report is due for release later during the North American session and is expected to show that the US economy added 190K jobs in June as compared to the 272K previous.
- Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth could see a modest dip, rising by the 3.9% yearly rate as compared to the 4.1% increase recorded in May.
- The crucial data will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Fed’s future policy decisions, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD.
Technical Analysis: Gold price seems poised to appreciate further while above 50-day SMA breakpoint
From a technical perspective, Wednesday’s sustained breakout through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Adding to this, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the upside. Some follow-through buying beyond the $2,365 area will reaffirm the constructive outlook and allow the XAU/USD to reclaim the $2,400 mark. The momentum could extend further towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $2,450 zone touched in May.
On the flip side, weakness back towards the 50-day SMA resistance breakpoint, around the $2,339-2,338 region, could be seen as a buying opportunity. This is followed by support near the $2,319-2,318 area, which if broken decisively could make the Gold price vulnerable to weaken further below the $2,300 mark and test the $2,285 horizontal zone. Failure to defend the said support levels might expose the 100-day SMA, currently near the $2,258 area, and the $2,225-2,220 support before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the $2,200 round-figure mark.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
