Germany, Future Leader of European Defense?

“As long as it takes, and as much as it takes” – this embodies Germany’s commitment to Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion. By taking the lead both politically and materially in European support for Ukraine, Germany aims to solidify its geopolitical influence, translating its longstanding economic power into a position as the undisputed leader of the European defense industry.

The awakening was stark, mirrored by the initial struggles of the German army’s equipment to mobilize due to neglect in routine use and maintenance. However, the realization has dawned: Germany can no longer afford to shirk its defense responsibilities. This realization marks the “Zeitenwende” or “change of era,” declared by Chancellor Schloz on February 27, 2022, with an additional budget allocation of 100 billion euros aimed at restoring Germany as a leading military power on the continent. But the challenge remains daunting, as the Rand Corporation noted in early 2024: “These are bold declarations, and clearly Germany has made significant progress supporting Ukraine. But whether it can afford to truly transform itself is another question. While money and arms have finally flowed to Ukraine, replenishing a depleted Bundeswehr has proved more challenging.”

European Sky Shield Initiative

The German turnaround became palpable in October 2022 with the initiation of Germany’s Sky-Shield initiative, which garnered support from several European countries. This initiative aims to establish the capabilities and doctrines necessary for a comprehensive, layered air and missile defense system under German leadership and initiative. ”German leadership of the ESSI is primarily driven by economic and security concerns. Germany’s aspiration to bolster defense exports is demonstrated by the successful promotion of its IRIS-T system. In 2023 alone, Germany secured significant revenue, with major deals involving countries such as Saudi Arabia, Estonia, Latvia, and Greece”, explains Aja Melville, Weapons Editor and Analyst at Military Periscope. On this and other fronts, Germany stands as the natural choice for a preferred partner in Europe, bolstered by its extensive experience, resources, and strong relations with the USA. This positions Germany to enhance its role as a primary partner, potentially even co-leader, within NATO. “European Sky Shield Initiative, under Germany’s leadership, shows the value of Allies stepping up to meet NATO’s requirements, while ensuring interoperability and integration,” said NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană. Germany’s stance on defense matters is evolving towards greater assertiveness, underscored by recent decisions such as approving the sale of Eurofighter aircraft equipped with IRIS-T missiles to Saudi Arabia, ending years of blockade. Additionally, Germany’s strategic maneuvering is evident in supplanting the USA as Estonia’s principal partner through a substantial billion-dollar sale of IRIS-T systems. These moves highlight Germany’s growing influence and proactive role in international defense partnerships.

Competitors in trouble

In addition to the USA, whose indecision on the subject of arms deliveries to the Ukraine has been less than reassuring to its European partners, Germany finds itself in a distinctive position to dominate the majority of markets across Europe and globally, despite the requirement that potential customers possess robust financial resources and capable armed forces to effectively utilize sophisticated equipment offered at competitive prices. As the geopolitical context evolves, however, Germany is reconsidering certain partnerships, while its dominant position will only grow stronger in the years to come, particularly with the almost total ousting of the Russian competitor in Eastern Europe and the Gulf States. The weakening of Israel as a competitor (with whom Germany collaborates, for example on EuroPULS, the Israeli-German equivalent of ATACMS), who has become unattractive even at arms fairs, which goes hand in hand with a number of scandals surrounding arms sales by the Hebrew state, such as in Denmark. The partnership is all the more problematic in that the EuroPULS is unlikely to be compatible with the American GMLRS ammunition that is making the headlines in Ukraine. 

Germany must capitalize on its strengths while distinguishing itself from France, which continues to favor wheeled armored solutions over tracked armored vehicles, which contrasts sharply with the lessons gleaned from the conflict in Ukraine. In a war unfolding close to Europe’s borders, the strategic and operational advantages of wheeled, moderately protected vehicles are increasingly questionable compared to the capabilities of tracked heavy armor, which can swiftly operate within a few hundred kilometers from their bases. This strategic shift was prominently evident at Eurosatory 2024, where companies like Rheinmetall and KNDS Germany (KMW) showcased an array of heavy Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) and Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs).

High-end defense

Europe can produce just about anything, but within its borders, Germany is country leading land warfare production. It has an unrivalled advantage when it comes to putting its money where its mouth is: it has Europe’s leading defense technology industry, producing the most high-tech equipment on the market, both in terms of quality and efficiency. As a natural consequence of prioritizing quality, the costs associated with acquisition and maintenance may appear daunting, but Germany perceives these expenses as essential investments in crew survivability. Germany remains steadfast in its commitment to equipping only top-tier armed forces, leveraging its industrial prowess and export capabilities to establish the “Made in Germany” label as synonymous with excellence in every market it enters. Bolstered by its recent successes and validated by the performance of its equipment in Ukrainian trials, Germany aims to capture numerous markets. From Qatar with the Boxer vehicle to Poland, the Scandinavian countries, and beyond, Germany seeks to expand its influence by offering advanced upgrades for Leopard 2 tanks, enhancing both protection and firepower to meet the latest standards. Above all, the German industry can count on its first customer: the Bundeswehr itself. The German army just recently re-signed four of the most high-tech versions of the Leopard 2, the 105 A8-standard to equip a future German brigade to be stationed in Lithuania. Still in the Baltic States, another significant development involves Germany and Canada, with plans for Canada to urgently acquire German artillery systems to support its Enhanced-Forward Presence (eFP) Battle Group in Latvia. A contract is already advancing for the initial delivery, paving the way for a larger, long-term agreement under the Indirect Fire Modernization (IFM) program. This initiative highlights Germany’s proactive stance as it strives to cement its position as Europe’s foremost military and industrial powerhouse on a global scale. 

Today, Germany produces some of the world’s most high-performance, demanding equipment, designed precisely for the missions in which they will finally be used from 2023 onwards: Central European warfare. This promises to be a heavy, mechanized, armored, tracked form of warfare, in which the latest technological solutions are designed to cope with new threats such as drones and electronic warfare. These employment conditions create a wide avenue for Germany’s cutting-edge industrial traditions to flourish, as it seeks to establish a new role as a natural leader in European defense while reinvigorating an industry shaken by the gas crisis.

[Photo by Fric.matej, via Wikimedia Commons]

Severin Meyer, trained in political science and international relations, worked as a defense civil servant before becoming a freelance consultant for European defense industries. He focuses on Central and Eastern Europe and transatlantic cooperation. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.