From Trade to Defence: Indo-US MEGA Partnership

Donald Trump’s remarkable political comeback as the 47^th President of the United States of America has created turbulence in security, trade, and the economy around the world and caused nervousness among many countries including India due to Trump’s several sweeping promises during his inaugural address, including a vow to tariff and tax foreign countries, deportation of illegal immigrants and so on. Although, the Minister of External Affairs of India, states that “India is not nervous about Donald Trump’s return as U.S. president”. Hence, Foreign leaders are visiting the White House to learn about the stance of Trump’s second administrative term towards the international community and how strong his ‘America first’ approach is. As a part of his two-nation visit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also landed in the United States of America on 12th February 2025 and met his US counterpart, President Donald Trump. Interestingly, PM Modi was the fourth world leader, that President Trump welcomed to the White House. The visit of the Prime Minister has brought the necessary momentum in India-US relations, which have been characterized by shared values, economic ties, and security cooperation.  The meeting involved extensive discussions, resulting in the launching and renewing of various initiatives.

The security and defence partnership will soar to new levels

India’s defence trade with the US has surged from near zero to $20 billion, making the US its third-largest arms supplier. While Russia remains India’s top source, its share has dropped from 62% to 34% (2017-2023) as India shifts toward US procurement. The bilateral discussions between Prime Minister Modi and US President Donald Trump in Washington D.C. mark a new chapter in military relations between the two nations. With a focus on enhancing defence collaboration, this meeting set the stage for strategic initiatives aimed at expanding military technology exchanges, co-production ventures, and strengthening bilateral defence ties, in that context, they announced plans to sign the US-India COMPACT (Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology for the 21st Century).  According to the Outcomes document issued by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) as part of this, the two countries will formalize a ten-year defence framework, expected to be signed later this year. This agreement will lay the foundation for deepening military partnerships, with a clear focus on technology, trade, and defence industrial cooperation. Furthermore, building on the U.S.-India Roadmap for Defense Industrial Cooperation and recognizing the increasing importance of autonomous systems, the leaders announced a new initiative namely, the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) scale industry partnerships and production in the Indo-Pacific. This new partnership will focus on underwater domain awareness technologies, where India will become the first country to collaborate with the US defence industry on such sensitive systems. Considering the maritime contestation in the Indian Ocean Region underwater capability technology, of course may help the Navy’s role and enhance interoperability in the region. In an effort to further simplify defence exchanges, India and the US are set to start talks this year on a Reciprocal Defence Procurement (RDP) agreement. Once this agreement is in place it will ensure that both countries can easily purchase defence goods and services from one another, promoting efficiency in procurement processes. Moreover, the big elephant in the room is the F-35 stealth fighter aircraft. President Trump noted that the US committed to review its policy on supplying fifth-generation fighters including the F-35 which is one of the most advanced stealth fighters in the world, to India. This would position India among a select group of nations authorized to acquire these jets. However, the offer will take a lot of time to translate into a final deal because the Indian Air Force will look at the efficacy, the cos, alternative option (Su-57) and so on. So, it is too early to say whether it will come or not, although there will be lots of pressure because India of course needs fifth-generation aircraft given the fact that the Indian Air Force running behind the required fighter squadrons. On top,  China flew a prototype of a sixth-generation fighter in December last year and plans to supply fifth-generation J-20 aircraft to Pakistan according to some reports.

On the security front, both leaders condemned terrorism and called out the countries to carry out cross-border terrorism and jointly fight against radical Islamic fundamentalism. As a result, President Trump announced that his administration had cleared the way for the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, wanted in India in connection with the 26/11 terrorist attack in Mumbai, in 2008. 

Trade, Technology and Innovation are key drivers of Economic Growth

The United States of America is the largest trading partner of India, while India is one of the top ten trading partners of the US. So, trade is one of the central pillars of Indo-US relations. Trump’s dream for a great America is reflected through the ‘MAGA’ (Make America Great Again) movement and India also wants to link its Viksit Bharat Abhiyan through the American lens ‘MIGA’ (Make India Great Again) for a comprehensive strategic partnership with the US, which PM Modi explains the ‘MEGA’ partnership combines both the MAGA and MIGA. This partnership may have great potential to fulfil the aspirations of both India and the US. However, President Trump, whose favourite word is the tariff and his very transactional personality wants a reciprocal relationship with all nations, no matter how weak or strong the opposite party is. India is a country that enjoys a trade surplus with the US and this put pressure on India to revisit its trade policy with the US. Therefore, assessing Trump’s trade approach, the Indian government had already reduced tariffs on certain U.S. products such as bourbon, motorcycles, and ICT. So, one of the main motives of the early visit of Modi to the White House is to find a way for win-win trade deals. During the visit, both countries committed to negotiating the first phase of a mutually beneficial multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement by the fall of 2025 and plan to take the bilateral trade of $500 billion by 2030. Moreover, to address the trade deficit, India assures to increase imports of American oil, gas, and defence equipment; it would also be a strategic move towards diversifying India’s defence and energy suppliers.

In the age of AI (Artificial Intelligence) what India needs the most from the US is a partnership in high-end technology and Innovation. Although India succeeded to a great extent in space competition but lagged in AI, nuclear, modern defence technologies, and cyber security. Importantly these sectors grabbed considerable attention in the visit. As a result, leaders announced ‘US-India TRUST’ (Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology) and ‘INDUS’ initiatives which will encourage inter-governmental engagements, academia and private sectors, to promote critical emerging technologies in areas across defence, AI semiconductor quantum computing, energy and space while taking into account the ethical considerations. Another important pillar of TRUST is the ‘Indo-US Roadmap on Accelerating AI’, which aims to encourage industry partnerships and investment in the AI sector. However, the challenges of the unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies and existing trade disparities would only be resolved with the execution of these goals on real ground.

Shared Goals and Interest for Indo-Pacific

Regional security and multilateral cooperation also featured prominently in the bilateral discussions ranging from the Indo-Pacific to the Russia-Ukraine war. India-US multilateral cooperation through Quad for free and open Indo-Pacific or I2U2 for strategic economic partnership in West Asia are significant among others. The fact, that the Quad foreign ministers meeting was Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first official engagement on his very first day of office, which was also read as a sign of President Trump’s willingness to back the quartet, which, after all, was revived in 2017 during his first term in office. Moreover, interestingly all Quad member countries have been invited to Washington within the first month of Trump taking charge.  During PM Modi’s meeting, the leaders reaffirmed that a strong U.S.-India partnership is essential to maintain a free, open, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific. As Quad partners, they emphasized that this collaboration is founded on a commitment to ASEAN centrality, adherence to international law and the peaceful resolution of maritime disputes in accordance with international law. This partnership is set to deepen further when India hosts the  Quad Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi later this year. The strategic balance with China in the Indo-Pacific depends on the strengthening cooperation among Quad members. However, India needs to be very cautious about any indication of alliance arrangement on the Quad. Because keeping a wary watch on the Modi-Trump talks in Washington, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun reacted and said that “Asia-Pacific is a hub for peaceful development not an arena for geopolitical rivalry. China believes that relations and cooperation between countries should not make an issue of China or harm other’s interests and it should be conducive to peace, stability and prosperity.” Hence, India would not like to escalate tensions along the Himalayan border again, which has recently reached a breakthrough during the Modi-Jinping summit at Kazan last year.

The initiatives and programmes that were announced during the bilateral meeting between the two leaders will boost the comprehensive strategic relations, while many scholars consider it just taking forward the relation from the Biden Administration by rebranding and renaming the agreements and initiatives. The earlier Biden administration and now the present Trump administration both have the same intent to close ties with India. However, the transactional, direct and upfront nature of President Trump helps to understand where he stands, and what he wants, is better for India as compared to the earlier President Biden who was indirect and there were multiple voices which made it difficult to understand what the intent was. Perhaps, within the White House, on the one hand, some were in favour of good relations with India, and on the other hand, some elements undermined the relationship in various issues. From this bilateral meeting, both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to strategic partnerships and understand their approach and policy frameworks on trade, security, technology and so on in the coming days. However, at the end of the day, the relations between the two countries will reach a new height only when the intent translates into the delivery of the outcome. For India, it is always viable to open multiple options for protecting its interests other than the United States with its very ‘Make America Great Again’ approach.

[Photo by Prime Minister’s Office, India, via Wikimedia Commons]

Apurba Sen is a PhD Research Scholar at the University of North Bengal, West Bengal, India. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.