Market Data 
On April 7, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump drew international attention by announcing renewed dialogue between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program. The statement couched in his familiar “maximum pressure” rhetoric, warned of “grave consequences” should Iran fail to comply. But while the international focus on uranium enrichment and weapons potential distracts attention the implications go far deeper. This moment could prompt a deep reconsideration of Iran’s internal order and societal make-up, including how the regime treats ethnic minorities like the South Azerbaijani Turks.
South Azerbaijani Turks constitute the largest ethnic minority in Iran, numbering approximately a quarter to a third of the population, yet remain largely neglected in international reporting. Any change in Iran’s political structure particularly in the wake of the clerical regime, will undoubtedly raise their demands for recognition and rights. Their location could have a profound impact on regional developments, especially in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. With talks between the U.S. and Iran back on the agenda, the prospect for domestic change is increasing — and regional powers from Azerbaijan and Turkey to Russia are taking notes.
Between Dialogue and Detonation
Despite Trump’s claim of direct diplomacy, Iranian officials insisted the discussions would be indirect and held through intermediaries in Oman. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sounded skeptical, seeing little hope that Washington would keep any deal. Other reports echoed similar contradictions, underlining how fragile and mistrust-ridden the process is so far.
Behind the scenes, Israeli leaders have promoted the “Libya model” as the ideal outcome—a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, followed by regime change. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to pressure Washington to keep this strategy on the table. However, repeating the Libya model which results in state collapse and civil war, could have disastrous consequences in Iran, observers say.
A Nation Within a Nation: South Azerbaijani Turks
The South Azerbaijani Turks have been a community subjected to violent cultural and language repression for a long. Tehran prohibits education in the Azerbaijani language, censors’ cultural expression, and targets activists for arrest. In the past decade, protests in Tabriz, Urmia, Ardabil, and other cities have seen thousands of South Azerbaijani Turks detained, many without trial.
These policies, aimed at Persianizing Iran’s diverse population, have backfired. They have deepened ethnic identity and political consciousness among South Azerbaijani youth. Activist networks continue to grow despite government crackdowns. Many now openly call for autonomy, federalism or secession.
The Scenarios: From Federalism to Fragmentation
With the collapse or severely weakened Islamic Republic, there are a few ways for the South Azerbaijani Turks to go:
- Federal Restructuring: The Federal model can also be adopted, where regionalism and cultural autonomy can get space. This would appease moderates in South Azerbaijan without sacrificing national unity.
- Federal Restructuring: Iran could adopt a federal framework for regional self-governance and cultural independence. Such a tactic might also satisfy the needs of moderate organizations in South Azerbaijan without compromising the nation’s integrity.
- Secession and Independence: If central control erodes, full independence could become viable. A sovereign South Azerbaijan would shift regional borders and potentially trigger similar movements in Kurdistan and Baluchistan.
- Confederation with Azerbaijan: While popular in some circles, a unification movement poses strategic and logistical challenges. Although some skeptics worry about whether incorporating people who have dissimilar ways of making a living or systems of rule could have destabilizing effects, note that most of the South Azerbaijani people are secular despite more than 3 decades of Islamic regime ideological propaganda. Cultural and linguistic ties and a common national sentiment could make for smoother integration than some critics of immigration say.
Azerbaijan’s Balancing Act
Azerbaijan’s government has publicly remained neutral while evidently preparing for the implications of instability in Iran. As per an article by Axar. az Russian political analyst Sergei Markov advised Baku to prepare for a rush of refugees in case of war. He urged Azerbaijan to prepare refugee camps and coordinate with allies like Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus.
Markov also raised the possibility of Iranian collapse and the emergence of a South Azerbaijani state. He cautioned that an unplanned union with Azerbaijan could have destabilizing effects and suggested that Baku should help South Azerbaijan build its own institutions. In this vision Azerbaijan would act more like a sponsor than an absorber.
Regional Power Plays
Russia, Turkey, and China are all watching the situation closely. Russia, despite being Tehran’s ally has voiced concern about the risk of “catastrophic strikes” on Iran. Moscow likely fears that ethnic fragmentation in Iran could ripple across the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Turkey, which positions itself as a champion of Turkic peoples may feel compelled to back South Azerbaijani aspirations. However it is unlikely to support full independence if it risks antagonizing Iran or upsetting regional stability.
With its heavy investment in Iran through the Belt and Road Initiative China is primarily concerned with maintaining economic stability and preventing U.S.-led regime change.
The Role of U.S.
While Trump’s reengagement suggests a possible thaw, Washington’s Iran policy remains fractured. Hawks see an opportunity to fracture Iran along ethnic lines weakening its regional influence. Others in the State Department and Pentagon caution that ethnic Balkanization could unleash chaos and empower extremist elements.
U.S. regime-change efforts have a poor track record and, according to think tanks like the Cato Institute, often end up with instability rather than liberal democracy. Overlooking Iran’s ethnic realities will make for a policy doomed to repeat those mistakes.
Conclusion: A Turning Point for Iran’s Internal Borders
The nuclear issue may be the public face of U.S.-Iran talks, but a larger transformation could be taking place beneath the surface. Iran’s internal borders—ethnic linguistic and ideological—are under pressure.
For the South Azerbaijani Turks this moment presents both risk and opportunity. They may finally gain recognition and rights long denied or be caught in the geopolitical crossfire.
Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia and the U.S. have a say in what happens next. A regional map could change if talks break down or war erupts. The time to make a plan is right now — quietly, strategically and in full recognition of the high stakes.
[Image credit: History of Iran, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons]
Babek Chalabi, a PhD student in IT and a South Azerbaijani activist based in Washington, D.C., is the founder of ArazNews.org, a platform dedicated to raising awareness about South Azerbaijani issues. Chalabi actively shares insights on Twitter at @BabekChelebi. The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of The Geopolitics.
Read the full article here
