France Agrees To A Political Truce As The Olympics Approaches

French president Emmanuel Macron has declared that he will wait till after the Olympics to form a government, partly we suspect in the hope that he also hopes for the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) grouping to come apart. Specifically, he has called for a political ‘truce’ during the Olympics. Indeed, in the last week there are signs of new coalition dynamics.

Importantly, Yaël-Braun-Pivet has been re-elected as the speaker of the Assembly in a vote where the NFP and Republicans have supported her, and where the NFP have garnered 12 of 22 positions in the Assembly (like the committee chairship in the Senate etc – the NFP have two Assembly vice-presidents and the chair of the finance committee). Of note also, is a pact of sorts between Gabriel Attal – now leader of the Macronist party, and Laurent Wauquiez – leader of the centrist Republicans. Wauquiez is seen by many of the centre right as a potential presidential hopeful.

The close relationship between them, points to an emerging ploy which to paraphase the former Interior minister Gerard Darmanin aims to ‘to break the socialists away from the NFP’. If that was to happen, then there is a good chance that France can have a centrist coalition spanning left to right (amidst plenty of personal and policy disagreements). Before that happens, there needs to be a mini-crisis – possibly around economic policy – where the La France Insoumise – can be discredited. This points to more volatility. As it stands, the NFT group is trying to come up with a unified proposal for prime minister (official it is the president who picks the PM).

Meanwhile the RN (Rassemblement) remain marginalised and are positioning themselves as the party of the people (versus the elites).

In sum, the formation of a durable government will take more time, potentially to late August, and may also require more volatility. A centrist coalition is a possibility, the issue is what kind of political strife is required to fuse it. In the meantime, the Olympics (and summer holidays) will take centre stage in France.