Market Data 
- EUR/USD shifts to the sidelines with the US core PCE Price Index for June in focus.
- Annual US core PCE inflation is estimated to have decelerated to 2.5%.
- The Euro remains on the backfoot due to multiple headwinds.
EUR/USD holds key support of 1.0825 in Friday’s European session even though investors worry about the Euro’s outlook due to multiple headwinds. The Eurozone’s economic prospects have been battered significantly, as its largest nation is going through a rough phase. Flash German Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) contracted in July due to a decline in private sector business activity. The PMI data came in lower at 48.7 from the prior release of 50.4.
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at HCOB, said, “This looks like a serious problem. Germany’s economy fell back into contraction territory, dragged down by a steep and dramatic fall in manufacturing output. The hope that this sector could benefit from a better global economic climate is vanishing into thin air. With the composite PMI now below 50, our GDP Nowcast predicts that economic output will shrink by 0.4% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. While it is still early days and many data points are yet to come, the second half of the year is starting on a very weak note.”
Meanwhile, rising expectations of two more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have also weighed down the Euro. A few ECB policymakers see firm speculation for two more rate cuts as appropriate. The confidence of ECB policymakers has increased amid expectations that inflation will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2% in 2025. Also, rate cuts are needed for the economy’s revival. The announcement of tax relief of 30 billion euros by German Finance Minister Christian Lindner for corporations and households on Wednesday has indicated the government’s concerns over a poor demand environment.
Going forward, the major trigger for the Euro will be preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July, which is scheduled for next week. The inflation data will provide fresh cues about when the ECB will cut interest rates again. Currently, traders expect the ECB to resume its policy-easing cycle in September.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains sideways while Euro’s outlook remains uncertain
- EUR/USD consolidates above a two-week low of 1.0825 in Friday’s European session. The major currency pair trades in a tight range, with investors focussing on the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
- Economists expect that the underlying inflation decelerated to 2.5% year-over-year in June from the prior release of 2.6%, with the monthly figure growing steadily by 0.1%. The inflation report will significantly influence market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year. Financial market participants currently see the speculation for interest rate cuts in September as certain. Softer-than-expected inflation figures would strengthen expectations for September rate cuts, while stubborn figures would diminish them.
- Meanwhile, the US Dollar exhibits a subdued performance as investors have been sidelined, knowing that the underlying inflation would significantly impact the outlook on interest rates by the Fed in its monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave its key borrowing rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in the July 31 meeting.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds above 1.0800
EUR/USD trades inside Thursday’s trading range ahead of US core PCE inflation data for June. The shared currency pair remains inside the Symmetrical Triangle pattern on a daily timeframe after failing to hold the breakout. The major currency pair extends its downside below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0840, and could slide further towards round-level supports near 1.0800 and 1.0700.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns within the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting the bullish momentum has faded.
On the upside, the round-level resistance of 1.0900 will be a key barrier for the Euro bulls.
Economic Indicator
HCOB Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Germany for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the German private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Last release: Wed Jul 24, 2024 07:30 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 48.7
Consensus: 50.7
Previous: 50.4
Source: S&P Global
