On Thursday afternoon, Brussels time, the EU parliament (Roberta Metsola has been re-elected speaker) will vote to confirm Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as EU president. Our sense is, given the drama in France, that she will be confirmed and if so, Brussels will go ‘quiet’ for the summer, with some focus still on the distribution of commissioner roles (it looks likely that Thierry Breton will be re-appointed by Macron).
Thursday’s vote is secret but there is a quiet confidence within the von der Leyen team that she will garner enough votes. MEP’s from the three main parties should vote for her – close to 400 votes, though various eccentricities will mean that some votes drop (four MEP’s from Fianna Fail a centrist Irish party have said they will (oddly) not vote for her, though they are coming under strong pressure to do so, which is emblematic of the pressure senior leaders are placing on MEP’s to shepherd in the next Commission).
We are watching the mood music in the right wing ECR group where Meloni is a player – in many ways she has an interest in maintaining von der Leyen as president. On the other side of the spectrum, there is also scope for Brussels to do a policy deal with Green MEPs.
If von der Leyen is not re-elected on the first vote (there is only one vote) the European Council has a month to present a new candidate (it could be Draghi or Kyriakos Mitsotakis the Greek prime minister, with a tiny chance they might retry von der Leyen). A vote against her would create another crisis in Brussels – which while not insurmountable – is not in the interest of any of the main parties.
Emmanuel Macron’s own crisis has helped von der Leyen in two ways – first he was against her taking a second term and additionally, the turmoil in France means that national and pan-EU leaders will take care to make sure that von der Leyen gets the votes required to secure her second term. Her team has also been very active on this front and we expect her to succeed.