Market Data 
- The Dow Jones explored the high end on Monday, but remains stuck near 40,000.
- Equities kicked off the new trading week on a high note, but bullish momentum faded quickly.
- Inconsistent tariff policies from the Trump administration continue to hamper market sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) kicked off Monday on a strong note, getting dragged higher by a general recovery fueled by a fresh spark in the tech rally. However, bullish sentiment faded quickly as investors face a long, slow crawl toward whatever the Trump administration has planned next for tariffs.
President Donald Trump delivered another about-face on his own tariffs, exempting key electronics and technology from triple-digit tariffs imposed on China. Markets were bolstered by the good news, but investors remain leery of the Trump team’s constant waffling on trade barriers, and are still braced for Donald Trump’s planned additional sectoral tariffs on things like lumber and pharmaceuticals.
This week’s economic data release schedule is notably less impactful than recent weeks, though US Retail Sales figures are on the docket for Wednesday. The trading week will also be shortened by the Easter holiday on Friday.
Read more stock news: Apple stock leads Dow Jones higher after Trump walks back consumer electronic tariffs
Dow Jones price forecast
Despite an early pop, the Dow Jones remains pinned close to the 40,000 major price handle. Bullish momentum on the back of tariff adjustments has fizzled out, leaving the major equity index to battle it out in a tough resistance zone between 41,000 and 40,000.
The DJIA caught a stellar rebound from 16-month lows near 37,000, but price action is now caught in a rough consolidation phase below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,825. A sharp uptick in volatility, but a decrease in directional momentum, has left charts a mess as investors get dragged around by the nose on tariff headlines.
Dow Jones daily chart
Economic Indicator
Retail Sales (MoM)
The Retail Sales data, released by the US Census Bureau on a monthly basis, measures the value in total receipts of retail and food stores in the United States. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 4,800 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms across the country. The data is adjusted for seasonal variations as well as holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Retail Sales data is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the US economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Next release:
Wed Apr 16, 2025 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Consensus:
1.4%
Previous:
0.2%
Source:
US Census Bureau
