Market Data 
In Nebraska, a wild card candidate is shaking up the US Senate map for Republicans, who never expected to be defending a seat in a reliably red state.
Independent Dan Osborn, a former union president who led his colleagues in the Kellogg’s strike in 2021, is proving to be a stronger-than-expected challenger in the state and is getting a bit too close for comfort for GOP incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer, prompting the Senate Republican campaign arm to get involved at a time when the party had been looking to invest in other, closer races across the country.
It’s a testament to how a little known independent with a populist message is resonating despite his sometimes unpolished delivery and unorthodox approach to the campaign. Osborn isn’t saying whom he’d caucus with if he were elected to the Senate and his views on policy don’t neatly fit into a Republican or Democratic box. But, political watchers in the state argue that Osborn has benefited from a dynamic where Fischer, a two-term senator, has focused a lot of time in Washington handling committee work and being in GOP leadership without building the kind of national or state profile that gives her notoriety back home.
“Deb makes no secret that she is a total workhorse, and she is not a show horse, and she makes no pretenses about that,” one source familiar with the Fischer campaign told CNN. “And as a result, she’s been an enormously effective senator, and you just look at her committee assignments, I mean, how they align with the state and what she’s been able to do, whether through appropriations or the infrastructure work she’s done.”
Fischer had previously pledged to only serve two terms in the Senate, and Osborn has attacked her for deciding to seek a third. In an interview with KETV in Omaha, Fischer said that her plans “changed when I got there and I learned how the place works,” arguing that Nebraska needs a senator with experience and connections in the chamber.
“When I got to the Senate, I found out how much seniority matters in the United States Senate,” she said. “It plays into your committee assignments, it plays into how you have made a network within not just the Senate, but within the House to be able to work together on bills to advance legislation.”
CNN reached out to Fischer for an interview for this story, but her campaign cited the busy campaign schedule for not making her available.
Despite his insistence that he’s running without the backing of a national party, Osborn is benefiting from a competitive congressional race in Omaha with Nebraska attracting national investments from presidential contenders because of the way the state allocates electoral votes with major focus on the second district in Omaha. Trump won the district in 2016 but lost it in 2020.
The investments could help drive up turnout, which could benefit Osborn. In addition, there are two ballot initiatives on abortion – one that would restrict abortion access, and another that would allow abortions up until the fetus is viable, as well as another ballot initiative on medical marijuana legalization, all three of which could encourage voters to come to the polls.
Still, Fischer has the political advantage having beat previous Democratic competitors by more than 14 points. Trump also won the state by around 19 points in 2020, and 25 points in 2016.
But Sen. Pete Ricketts, who is running in his own Senate race this cycle to finish out former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term, warned that Fischer is facing a closer than expected contest.
“Deb has a tough race,” Ricketts said during a radio appearance on “Clay and Buck.” “She just has to get out there. We need to get Republicans on board. We need to get Republicans to get back to the Republican Party and remember that Deb is a conservative Republican in this race, not Dan Osborn.”
So far, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has placed over $700,000 in reservations with Fischer, including a $172,000 joint ad buy with Fischer’s campaign at the end of September, per AdImpact, a sign the party is not taking chances in what should be a ruby red state. Total spending for Fisher on air was around $3.5 million this cycle so far, compared to over $6 million from Osborn’s campaign. In total, pro-Osborn groups and the Osborn campaign have so far spent $12.7 million to pro-Fischer and Fischer’s campaign’s $9.3 million.
“The NRSC’s number one priority is making sure we reelect all of our incumbent senators,” NRSC spokesperson Philip Letsou told CNN, saying Osborn “has no chance of winning this race.”
Osborn has argued he’s still new to politics and in an interview with CNN several of his answers showed the independent candidate grappling with how to translate his message into effective governing if he makes it to Washington.
Osborn has said that he does not plan to caucus with Republicans or Democrats when he arrives in the US Senate, unlike other independent senators. But caucusing is how senators often are granted their committee assignments. With control of the chamber coming down to a handful of tight races, having a wild card like Osborn involved could complicate things further.
“There’s a reality that exists, that I could be the 51st swing vote in the US Senate, and that certainly is going to give me the ability to operate more effectively in Congress,” he told CNN.
Senators spend a lot of their time in Washington working on their committees, which members are assigned to by their party’s leadership. Asked how he expects to receive committee assignments without caucusing with Republicans or Democrats, Osborn wasn’t clear.
“If people want me on their committees, they’ll just have to look at where I stand on the issues, and if I align with somebody on an issue, then I would expect to be on that committee,” he said.
However, pressed on whether he could see himself eventually deciding to caucus with one party or another, after he arrives in Washington, Osborn left the door open.
“I usually don’t dwell in hypotheticals, and I’m not a political analyst,” he said. “I probably don’t have the knowledge that you do, just being inside every day, but that – you know a lot of that’s gonna depend, who’s the president, how’s the House set up, how’s the Senate set up, and how many people I can find to align myself with that understand the value of what I bring to the table, and, you know again, how to best deliver for Nebraska.”
Despite Osborn running as an independent, left-leaning groups have contributed heavily to his campaign. Retire Career Politicians ran a TV ad attacking Fischer for backing down from her promise to only serve two terms in the Senate. The political action group has received more than $800,000 from 1630 Fund, a group dedicated to electing progressive politicians.
Osborn told CNN, “I have no control over who gives us, who gives those independent expenditures money. I don’t even know who runs them – by law, I’m not allowed to. So that’s disgusting, and that scares the hell out of me, because I don’t even know who these people are.”
He added, “They got another thing coming if they think that I’m going to be beholden to them.”
Osborn has gone out of his way to keep the Democratic Party apparatus at arm’s length; however, the Nebraska Democratic Party has alleged that Osborn was originally speaking with the group about forming a coalition with its endorsement. After he chose to continue running as an independent without their backing last spring, it released a statement accusing him of having “betrayed” its trust.
Osborn dismissed this claim, releasing a statement to CNN that read, “From the beginning of this race, I’ve been clear that I was not going to take the endorsement of any one party. Our campaign isn’t accepting the endorsement of any political party or politician.”
He added, “I want to work with people from all backgrounds and parties — Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians and independents — to deliver for Nebraskans. But I’m not a member of either party and I’m not taking a dime of corporate PAC money, and I never will, because I refuse to be controlled by any party boss or special interest. In the Senate, the only people I’ll be beholden to are Nebraskans.”
Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, told CNN that some Democrats are hesitant to support Osborn.
“Folks feel concerned that we’re walking into a Kyrsten Sinema position where one person holds the Senate hostage,” she said, noting that several of Osborn’s positions don’t align with their own.
“When you’re in politics, you don’t just back politicians to back politicians. We support people who share our values. And I’m just – I get worried that I don’t know what Dan would do,” Kleeb added.
Osborn would not say whether he plans to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, only telling CNN that he does plan to vote for one of them. “Yeah, I’m going to exercise my right to vote that many people have died to give me,” he said.
The state party has included Osborn in their newsletter to voters. “We explained to voters what he did to the Democratic Party that we thought was not appropriate or right, and that we do believe that, you know, there are two choices on the ballot now, and you know, voters have to make that choice,” Kleeb told CNN.
CNN’s David Wright contributed to this report.
