Chipotle’s latest marketing campaign shows how restaurants are getting creative to win your lunch break

But first, let’s grab lunch.

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The big story

It’s 12 o’clock somewhere

One of the most interesting battles in business is taking place on your lunch break.

Back to the office means the return of the age-old question: What’s for lunch?

The fight to be the answer to that question is a valuable one. Market research firm Future Markets Insights pegged the lunch takeout market at $215.3 billion in 2022.

Chipotle’s latest marketing campaign shows how creative restaurants are getting to nab your lunch order. The fast-casual chain knows where its bread is buttered burrito is wrapped, advertising a limited-time meal targeted at young, male office workers.

The Chipotle Boy Bowl has double chicken, white rice, black beans, mild salsa, corn, sour cream, cheese, guacamole, and lettuce, in a nod to the gym and finance bros who frequent the chain. (Truly knowing their audience would have been touting the “macros” — carb, protein, and fat stats — of the dish, but I digress.)

The newest addition to the menu could have been a mea culpa by Chipotle. In recent years, the chain has faced criticism over what some customers say is a drop in quality coupled with rising prices.

That culminated last month in popular food influencer and former Chipotle collaborator Keith Lee complaining about the chain’s portion sizes.

Still, Chipotle’s stock, which is preparing for a historic 50-for-1 split next week, has persevered. Its share price is up more than 43% this year.

But the competition to be your go-to lunch spot is fierce.

A newcomer to the public markets has come on particularly strong. Fellow fast-casual chain Cava, often viewed as a Mediterranean Chipotle, has been on a tear since it went public last June. This year its share price is up more than 125%.

And that’s not even tops in the sector. Sweetgreen, which went public in 2021, is up roughly 165% this year. It also has an eye toward the future with the launch of a robot-driven location in Illinois last year.

But other lunch options haven’t enjoyed as much success. Yum! Brands — home to KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell — is up less than 4% this year. And Restaurant Brands, which includes Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeyes, is down more than 10%.

Even the granddaddy of them all — McDonald’s — is having a slog. Its share price is down more than 14% as customers criticize its new value meal, and it struggles to integrate AI into its workflow.

But the real threat to chains isn’t each other: it’s consumers’ kitchens. Rising prices have led some to brown paper bag it.

3 things in markets

1. Citadel grows its South Florida fortress. Ken Griffin is reportedly adding two more floors to Citadel’s planned offices, which will now feature eight floors within a 55-story tower in Miami’s financial district. It shows the billionaire’s continued investment in the Sunshine State.
2. The US government is wracking up quite the bill. The Congressional Budget Office projects national debt will reach $56.9 trillion by the start of 2034. That represents a 64% increase over the next decade.
3. Bitcoin’s cooldown might be a warning for the stock market. A Stifel strategist predicted a late-summer stock market decline based on bitcoin’s 10% sell-off in the past few weeks. He pointed to the strong correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 since 2020.

3 things in tech

1. Apple’s AI rollout faces a huge hurdle in China. ChatGPT, which powers Apple Intelligence, isn’t allowed in China, a key market for Apple. Large-language-model chatbots operating in China need Beijing’s permission, which has only been granted to domestic companies. That’s reportedly led Apple to consider deals with Chinese makers similar to OpenAI.
2. Nvidia and Microsoft beefed over chips. Jensen Huang’s attempt to closely control how Nvidia chips are used reportedly led to a weeks-long feud with Microsoft. The tense standoff made it all the way to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella’s desk before Nvidia backed down.
3. Amazon goes back to basics. The company got its start selling books in 1994. Decades later, its original business is thriving — and outpacing sales of e-books. Internal documents show Amazon sold $16.9 billion worth of books in the first 10 months of 2022.

3 things in business

1. Elon rues the breakup with Twitter’s advertisers. Two years after telling advertisers to get lost, Elon Musk is courting them again in the face of X’s plummeting revenue. But advertisers seem to think they’re better apart, with many turned off by his chaotic tweeting habits.
2. Sorry, it’s for close friends only. After years of favoring influencers, Instagram, TikTok, and Snapchat are all leaning into features for close friends. They’re intended to foster connections between users and the small subset of followers who get access to exclusive content.
3. A16z-backed Knownwell is buying Alfie Health. Alfie Health, a Y Combinator startup, uses AI to treat obesity. With Ozempic sparking a boom in the weight-loss business, obesity-care startup Knownwell plans to integrate Alfie’s AI tech into its obesity and primary-care services.

In other news

What’s happening today

• Donald Trump appears at a court hearing on charges of mishandling classified documents.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. George Glover, reporter, in London. Annie Smith, associate producer, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.