Market Data 
- Bitcoin dropped 9% in 4 days, nearing $92,864, aligning with global M2 money supply trends; potential support levels at $88K and $73K.
- Long-term holders sold 507K BTC since September, adding pressure; the offloading rate peaked at 366K BTC/month, the highest since April 2024.
- Market sentiment cooled; $100K likelihood fell to 64%, options open interest rose 34% to $5.92B, signaling hedging amid volatility.
Bitcoin’s price has seen a significant retreat in recent days, aligning closely with global liquidity trends. After reaching a sub-$100,000 high, BTC has dropped over 9% within four days, settling near $92,864 at press time. Analysts highlight that the correction mirrors historical patterns tied to the Global M2 money supply.
UPDATE: One day after my last chart, bitcoin is now $5,000 lower, following the path set by global M2 several weeks ago very closely.
So far, this correlation is shockingly accurate.
We’ll have to see if BTC follows it all the way down, or stops short & finds support.
🍿🍿🍿 pic.twitter.com/oEGOuYYRio
— Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti) November 26, 2024
Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders Adds Pressure
Recently, data reveals heightened activity among long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs). Glassnode reports show an offloading rate of 366,000 BTC per month, marking the highest pace since April 2024.
Intriguingly, since their peak supply in September, LTHs have distributed 507,000 BTC, fueling downward pressure. While this volume is substantial, it remains smaller than the 934,000 BTC sold during the rally to March’s all-time high.
Consequently, market experts attribute the sell-off to profit-booking by LTHs amid cooling market sentiment. This has contributed to Bitcoin losing its critical $94,000 support level. With significant liquidity positioned around $88,000 and $73,000, analysts suggest these could be critical levels for the cryptocurrency’s next moves.
Global M2 Correlation and Key Levels to Watch
Additionally, Bitcoin’s price movement has closely followed the Global M2 money supply since September, with a lag of approximately 70 days. Analyst Joe Consorti recently noted a $5,000 drop in Bitcoin’s price that aligned with M2 trends. If the correlation persists, Bitcoin could face a correction of 20-25% from its recent highs of $99,000. This would bring prices closer to $88,000 or potentially lower.
Moreover, Consorti remains cautious about whether Bitcoin will follow M2 trends all the way down or find support sooner. Meanwhile, another analyst, Justin Bennett, pointed out a liquidity block at $73,000, marking a level critical for Bitcoin’s rebound after the rally to $100,000.
Declining Market Confidence Reflects BTC’s Challenges
Furthermore, market sentiment has shifted as probabilities of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 have decreased significantly. According to prediction market Kalshi, the odds have dropped to 64% from a previous 92%, with November’s likelihood plunging to 18%. Additionally, the stock price of MicroStrategy, a major Bitcoin holder, has declined by 35% in four days.
Therefore, the Bitcoin options market has seen contrasting activity. While open interest for BTC futures fell below $60 billion, options open interest surged by 34% to $5.92 billion. This shift indicates a hedging behavior among investors, preparing for continued volatility ahead of upcoming expiry dates.
