Market Data 
Bitcoin (BTC) slightly raised its riskiest support zone, now resting between $90K and $95K. Previously, the leading crypto had support at around $87,000 based on the holdings of new buyers.
Bitcoin continued to attract buyers near its higher price range. As such, the new sensitive price zone now lies between $90K and $95K, where spot buyers can capitulate and sell. For now, the market has not seen true panic-selling, as most coins are also kept off exchanges. However, a move down to that zone could quickly lead to rapid selling and both unrealized and realized losses.
Price dips into the zone under $95,000 can cause realized losses of up to $100M an hour, causing pressure on recent buyers. Previously, the new cohort of Bitcoin buyers was in the money in the range above $87,000. BTC moved down to the $90,000 range at least three times since November, each time causing some of the holders to panic-sell.
The holder capitulation levels are still hypothetical. For now, those price levels do not coincide with the derivative trading heat map. After the most recent liquidations, positions under $100,000 per BTC are more scarce. Physical holders with coins in long-term wallets may not affect the market as fast as liquidations or the actions of whales looking for short-term gains.
Bitcoin is still in the accumulation zone, based on the Rainbow chart price arc. The ongoing buying reflects the ‘extreme greed’ sentiment at the moment. During those periods, BTC looks toward a potential drawdown and its secondary effects on holders. BTC is also moving toward neutral based on the ratio of market value to realized value.
After a consolidation, Bitcoin is expected to chart its next price move, drawing more attention to potential support levels and readiness to buy dips. Even corporate buyers have briefly stopped updating their treasuries, awaiting more signs of the market’s direction.
Based on ‘hodl waves’, the newest buyers are also the fastest sellers. Holding starts to grow for wallets older than 1 week and up to 3 months. Short-term holders have a realized price of $88.2K per BTC, with a gain of around 17%. The relatively modest cushion is closely watched for a reversal and short-term selling.
Exchange reserves continue downward trend
The new price range established itself as BTC moved down to $102,000, once again sparking discussion of potential weak hands. For now, large holders are still maintaining their reserve levels, while exchange reserves are dipping even lower. The reassessment of holdings also comes a day after all BTC buyers at any time in history were briefly in the green.
Centralized markets carry only 2.34M Bitcoins available for sale, while miners have around 1.9M coins in their treasuries. After a series of exchange-based losses, most long-term holders have decided to withdraw funds and keep them in custody.
As BTC moves into new wallets with the intention to hold, some of the selling pressure may be relieved. Whales and long-term holders are more careful about selling, which also includes OTC deals. For now, capitulations are mostly driven by derivative positions, where liquidations happen at specific price levels.
BTC still boasts a significant USD market
BTC traded with a very small Coinbase premium on the spot market. At the same time, the USD was one of the key liquidity sources. Direct USD pairings made up 18.8% of all BTC trading activity.
The share of USD trading pairs remains significant, as US trading hours are also the most active. | Source: Cryptocompare
BTC felt the effect of US traders, where trading was also the most active during US trading hours. The recent rally ahead of Donald Trump’s second inauguration brought BTC to a new all-time high, and the enthusiasm for 2025 may help prices hold above the capitulation price range.
Based on previous cycles, BTC is also below its potential new peak, which keeps some buyers as holders. BTC still promises price discovery after a cycle with the smallest drawdowns in trading history.
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