Market Data 
- AUD saw a marginal recovery on Friday but was one of the worst-performing G10 currencies.
- Falling commodity prices and Chinese economic woes weighed on the Aussie.
- The USD remains steady after mixed PCE figures.
In Friday’s session, the Australian Dollar (AUD) slightly recovered against the USD, as AUD/USD rebounded to 0.65515 due to corrective activities after intensive sell-offs in the previous sessions. The continual weakness in China’s economy paired with depreciating iron ore prices remain the significant contributor to the AUD’s dynamic performance.
Despite the visible vulnerability in the Australian economy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delays its rate cuts due to persistently high inflation. This stance could potentially limit further depreciation of the AUD. As per current forecasts, the RBA might be one of the last among the G10 central banks to implement rate cuts, a condition that could extend the AUD’s gains.
Daily digest market movers: Aussie sees marginal recovery, amidst continuing economic stress in China and Australia
- AUD/USD has remained firmly rooted in the ‘risk-off’ sentiment, dominated by concerns over the Chinese economy and the AUD’s ‘high risk’ G10 status.
- At the start of this week, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to cut rates, sparking fears about the health of the second-largest economy in the world, Australia’s primary trading partner.
- Additionally, Industrial metals prices remained under pressure due to lingering fears of weak Chinese demand.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains hawkish, and markets bet on a potential rate hike in Q4, which mirrors the nearly 50% odds on either a September or November rate hike.
AUD/USD Technical analysis: Bearish outlook endures with the pair resting below main SMAs
The AUD/USD movement below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) still signals a significant area of concern, suggesting that the downward trends might continue and the downward shifts seen in July weren’t just corrective.
Key support levels line up at 0.6540, 0.6530, and 0.6500, while resistance levels lie at 0.6600 (ie., the 200-day SMA), 0.6610, and 0.6630.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
