Market Data 
- Altcoin dominance follows a four-year cycle, with repeated growth, corrections, and new highs aligning with Bitcoin’s halving.
- Historical data shows impulse waves and mid-cycle corrections, reinforcing the structured growth of the altcoin market.
- Altseason peaks have consistently formed higher highs, indicating a long-term upward trajectory in altcoin market performance.
The altcoin market has demonstrated a consistent four-year cycle, characterized by repeating patterns of growth, corrections, and new peaks. Analysts have identified structural trends in altcoin dominance, aligning with Bitcoin’s halving cycles and broader cryptocurrency market movements.
Market Trends and Cycles Identified by Analysts
Moustache, a market analyst, broke down the total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies minus Bitcoin. Between 2014 and 2025, his analysis described a repeating cycle of bullish and corrective periods. The market had created a double bottom formation between 2014 and 2018, ushering in a strong bullish period named Impulse Wave 1. The rapid growth produced a mid-cycle correction before the continuation of an uptrend for the market during Impulse Wave 2.
Source: Moustache
A similar structure emerged between 2018 and 2025, where the market again formed a double bottom before experiencing another bullish wave. The first impulse wave in this period pushed the market cap higher, followed by a mid-cycle correction. The latest phase has seen the formation of Impulse Wave 2, continuing the previous trends. Additionally, a descending broadening wedge pattern has appeared on the timespan, historically preceding a strong upward breakout.
The Four-Year Cycle and Altseason Projections
Merlijn The Trader analyzed the historical performance of the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin, confirming that altcoin seasons occur approximately every four years. The first altcoin season took place around 2017, followed by a peak and subsequent correction. By 2021, the second altcoin season developed, reaching another peak before retracing. The projected third altcoin season is expected to occur between 2025 and 2026, following the established four-year cycle.
Source: Merlijn The Trader
Market cycles indicate that altcoins tend to trade within a defined range, forming higher lows along the lower trendline. Peaks align along the upper trendline, creating a broadening channel pattern. Historical data suggests that altcoin seasons maintain structured patterns, reinforcing long-term market trends.
Market watchers note that each altseason has recorded higher peaks than the previous, emphasizing the market’s consistent growth trajectory. The data confirms that altcoin dominance follows a cyclical pattern, with repeated expansions and corrections. These predictable trends continue shaping altcoin market behavior within defined four-year cycles.
