Market Data 
The earliest opener in the history of baseball is two days away.
That’s when the Los Angeles Dodgers, fresh from spending a cool billion on two stars who got their start in Japan, will play the San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea – previously virgin territory for Major League Baseball.
Heavily favored to play deep into October, the Dodgers not only signed the top two free agents of the winter (Shohei Ohtani, 12 years at $700 million, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 12 years at $325 million) but have a roster loaded with MVPs.
Ohtani won the award twice while playing for the Los Angeles Angels, while Mookie Betts (2018 Red Sox), Freddie Freeman (2020 Braves), and Clayton Kershaw (2014 Dodgers) each earned a solo trophy.
Both Ohtani and Atlanta lead-off man Ronald Acuna, Jr. were unanimous winners last year but are not good bets to win again – mainly because a repeat award would contradict the Law of Averages.
No MVP has won in back-to-back seasons since Miguel Cabrera in 2012-13 and no National Leaguer has done it since Albert Pujols in 2008-09. Both are now retired.
Winning consecutive World Series is even more difficult, so the odds are against a repeat performance by the Texas Rangers. Here’s why:
American League West
Although the Rangers will host the All-Star Game on July 16, they have not won an American League West title since 2016 (both Texas and the National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks were wild cards who managed to reach the 2023 World Series).
Texas faces the formidable task of dethroning the Houston Astros, a team that has won four AL West crowns in the last five seasons and reached the American League Championship Series – stepping stone to the World Series – six seasons in a row. Four of those turned into pennants, with a pair morphing into world championships.
Both teams figure to rely on aging veterans, with Justin Verlander (Astros) continuing his unlikely pursuit of 300 victories and former teammate Max Scherzer (Rangers) hoping to team with Jacob deGrom down the stretch. Although they have eight Cy Young Awards among them, all three pitchers will begin the 2024 campaign on the injured list.
Houston’s biggest off-season addition was left-handed closer Josh Hader, a fire-balling free agent signed to a five-year, $95 million contract. Another lefty, Framber Valdez, heads a rotation that should also include Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy.
Displaced former closer Ryan Pressly has been pushed back into a set-up role, where he’ll be one of the league’s best.
The Astros own an array of sluggers led by Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and three-time batting champ Jose Altuve, but the key man could be third baseman Alex Bregman, a likely free agent this fall.
Houston may miss retired manager Dusty Baker, whose next stop should be Cooperstown, but the Rangers will continue to rely on Bruce Bochy, coming off his fourth world championship campaign.
At 68, he’s older than all other major-league managers after 72-year-old Ron Washington of the Los Angeles Angels.
Bochy’s big job this season is to work rookies Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford into a lineup that already includes World Series MVP Corey Seager plus fellow sluggers Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, and Nathaniel Lowe.
With All-Star Nathan Eovaldi now the top starter and Jose Leclerc an inexperienced closer, the Rangers will need to score more runs than they allow.
Chasing the two titans from Texas will be the Seattle Mariners, the only team that has never won a pennant. The M’s reached the playoffs in 2022 but missed by a hair (two games) last summer, convincing trade-happy general manager Jerry Dipoto to shake up his roster.
He added offense in Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, and Jorge Polanco, boosting an attack led by star center-fielder Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh. Despite an all-right-handed rotation, Seattle has strong pitching featuring Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and hard-throwing closer Andrés Muñoz.
Out of the playoffs for the 13th time in the last 14 seasons, the Angels snatched Washington from Atlanta as manager but lost Ohtani, who led the team in every major hitting department plus wins and earned run average.
They need strong comebacks from three-time MVP Mike Trout and fellow slugger Anthony Rendon plus better pitching from Reid Detmers and Patrick Sandoval.
With Oakland about to enter its last year in the league, the Angels are assured of avoiding the basement. The A’s already have one foot on the ground in Las Vegas, where they plan to open their new stadium in 2028. Until then, they’re a lame duck headed for a lame season.
Probable finish: Astros, Rangers, Mariners, Angels, Athletics
American League Central
In the American League Central, two teams that struggled in recent years could become surprise contenders in a weak division. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals both invested heavily in free agents to buttress a bounty of young talent that started to blossom last summer.
The Tigers imported veterans Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, and Shelby Miller via free agency, bolstering a pitching staff headed by Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and closer Alex Lange. They also signed Mark Canha, adding punch behind Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, and comeback candidate Javy Baez. Greene is returning from Tommy John surgery.
Kansas City’s task is tougher; the Royals led the American League last year with 106 losses, the third time they lost in triple digits since their 2015 world championship. On the plus side, they signed star shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. to an 11-year, $288.7 million contract, according to MLB.com, and rebuilt their rotation with free agents Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Lefty Cole Ragans, a rookie last year, was the team’s best arm after arriving from Texas in exchange for Aroldis Chapman.
Witt, a 30/30 player last year, is the primary power source, backed by veteran catcher Salvatore Perez and DH candidates Hunter Renfroe, MJ Melendez, and Nelson Velasquez.
The Minnesota Twins took three AL Central titles over the last five years but spent the winter cutting costs, trading Jorge Polanco and waving goodbye to nine veteran free agents including top starting pitcher Sonny Gray.
That increases the pressure on shortstop Carlos Correa, trying to justify his six-year, $200 million contract, and fellow rebound candidate Byron Buxton. Along with Royce Lewis and Max Kepler, they’re each capable of two-dozen homers, though this team is far from the one that hit 307 homers, a major-league mark since tied by the Braves, in 2019.
Young but innovative manager Rocco Baldelli, 42, is counting on quality pitching from Pablo Lopez, Chris Paddack, Joe Ryan, and closer Jhoan Duran.
Cleveland, another club trying to control expenditures, fell from first to third last year, finishing 10 games under .500 with a 76-86 mark, worst of Terry Francona’s tenure. Rookie pilot Steven Vogt may have a hard time replacing the future Hall of Fame manager – especially since the team banks on pitching, speed, and defense rather than power.
After switch-hitting slugger Jose Ramirez and the Naylor brothers (Josh and Bo), many lineup spots seem unsettled. Only three teams scored fewer runs last season, but Cleveland is good at run prevention with pitchers Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, lefty Logan Allen, and Emmanuel Clase, a quality closer coveted by several other clubs.
The Chicago White Sox ranked 24th in attendance last year (1,669,628) and will continue to struggle at the gate if their myriad of off-season trades doesn’t erase the memory of a 101-loss campaign. Sox fans will appreciate the big bats of Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn, and especially Luis Robert, Jr. but Yoan Moncada is a potential free agent likely to leave a sinking ship.
With erstwhile ace Dylan Cease now in San Diego, Chicago is pinning its hopes on newcomers Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster, both obtained from the Braves, and holdover Michael Kopech, shifted from the rotation to the relief corps. Erick Fedde, returning to the U.S. majors from Korea, could help too.
Probable finish: Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, White Sox
American League East
The Baltimore Orioles led the American League with 101 wins last year. Not willing to rest on their laurels, they went out and traded three players to the Milwaukee Brewers for Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young Award recipient entering the walk year of his contract. The Birds also signed Craig Kimbrel as a stop-gap replacement for injured closer Felix Bautista (Tommy John surgery).
A young team with a low payroll, the O’s are loaded with talented infielders, especially defending Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson, and have a stud behind the plate in Adley Rutschman, widely considered the best catcher in baseball.
Rookie second baseman Jackson Holliday, son of Matt, is part contact hitter and part slugger, a rare combination. Like Henderson, Rutschman, Anthony Santander, and Ryan Mountcastle, he could supply 20-homer power.
Kyle Braddish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and comeback candidate John Means provide steady if not spectacular starting pitching.
Beating AL East rivals was an issue for the Blue Jays last year, though the team reached the playoffs as a wild-card entry – then promptly extended its post-season losing streak to seven games, stretching back to 2016.
Toronto has the bats to do better: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer get solid support from Davis Schneider, a slugger in the high minors, and Cavan Biggio, whose father is a Hall of Famer. A pitching quartet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and AL victory leader Chris Bassett will keep games close, especially now that newcomers Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa solidify the defense.
Before Gerrit Cole’s elbow started barking this spring, the New York Yankees seemed poised for a post-season run. Losing him until May hurts, especially since the rest of the rotation relies on comebacks by Carlos Rodón and fellow lefty Nelson Cortes. Without the league’s defending Cy Young Award winner and strikeout leader, manager Aaron Boone will have to rely on a bullpen brigade headed by sinkerballer Clay Holmes. He may regret the winter trade that sent three pitchers to San Diego for Juan Soto, a much-needed left-handed hitter entering the final year of a contract that pays him $31,000,000, according to Spotrac.
Soto and former MVP Aaron Judge form a fine left-right tandem to anchor a lineup loaded with question-marks in veterans Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, new catcher Austin Wells, and good-field, no-hit sophomore shortstop Anthony Volpe.
Tampa Bay, overlooked and under-paid, always finds a way to make the most of limited resources. The Rays will pay their players $91 million this year, according to Spotrac, but don’t figure to duplicate their 100-win season of 2021 or even their 99 wins of last summer.
After trading erstwhile ace Tyler Glasnow in a cost-cutting move, manager Kevin Cash will count on a pitching staff consisting of control artists Zach Eflin and Ryan Pepiot, sinkerballer Zack Littell, and hard-throwing closer Pete Fairbanks. AL batting king Yandy Diaz, an on-base machine, teams with post-season stud Randy Arozarena to lead an offense that also includes Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe, who are not related. The status of one-time wunderkind Wander Franco, under investigation for off-the-field issues, remains uncertain.
Boston, once a perennial contender in a tough division, seems headed for its fourth straight season in the cellar. The team has never recovered from the trade of former MVP Mookie Betts, leader of the 2018 world champions, and lost more than a half-dozen veterans through trades or free agency. To compound the felony, highly-respected manager Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract. Although Rafael Devers led the team in hits, home runs, and RBIs last year, he’ll need more support from holdovers Masataka Yoshida, Trevor Story, and Triston Casas plus newcomers Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom, a young second baseman who missed most of spring training with a groin strain.
Projected top starter Lucas Giolito, signed as a free agent, will miss the season after elbow surgery, leaving Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, and Tanner Houck to pick up the slack. Veteran Kenley Jansen, who notched his 400th save last summer, will be busy again.
Probable finish: Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox
Next: National League 2024 preview
