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- Trump’s proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances, a nonpartisan budget group is warning.
- The group predicts Trump’s agenda would push up Social Security insolvency by 3 years.
- Harris’ proposals would have little impact on Social Security’s insolvency timeline, the group says.
Americans are in danger of losing their full benefits by the mid-2030s — and a nonpartisan budget group is warning that if Trump is elected, his policies could push the funding crisis years sooner.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan nonprofit that examines the impacts of fiscal policies, released a report Monday outlining the negative effects it predicts a second Trump presidency would have on Social Security.
“We find President Trump’s campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances,” the CRFB wrote in its report.
In a recent report, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that a main Social Security trust fund could be exhausted in 2034, meaning that Americans wouldn’t get their full benefits.
The Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees estimated that the fund would run out a year later, in 2035.
But the CRFB estimates in its report that if Trump wins a second term and enacts his current campaign proposals, those funds would become insolvent three years sooner than the CBO’s prediction, in 2031. The CRFB says that would lead to Americans losing 33% of their Social Security benefits across the board by 2035 — a bigger cut compared to the CBO’s current 23% projection.
The CRFB estimates that the Republican presidential nominee’s promises to stop taxing Social Security benefits, eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, impose tariffs, and increase deportations would worsen Social Security’s cash deficits when combined.
But that’s not all the damage Trump’s proposals would do, according to the CRFB.
In addition to advancing the insolvency timeline and reducing Americans’ benefits, Trump’s agenda would raise Social Security’s ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through 2035 and raise its annual shortfall by about 50% in 2035, the CRFB predicts in its report.
For Social Security to restore 75-year solvency under these conditions, current law benefits would need to be decreased by about a third, or revenue would need to increase by half.
The Trump campaign’s national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, disputed the CRFB’s report in a statement shared with Business Insider.
“The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years. President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term,” Leavitt said in the statement.
“By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for generations to come, all the while eliminating taxes on Social Security for America’s well-deserving seniors,” Leavitt continued.
Meanwhile, the CRFB had a rosier outlook when it examined Kamala Harris’ policy proposals.
The CRFB says in its report that the Democratic presidential nominee’s campaign proposals “would not have large effects on Social Security trust fund solvency.” Because Harris’s policies would only affect the insolvency timeline by weeks or months, the group did not create a similar report for her, CRFB’s senior policy director Marc Goldwein said, according to the Washington Post.
Both Trump and Harris have said they would protect Social Security, but neither candidate has laid out specific plans to alleviate the expected $16,500/year cut to benefits that a typical couple retiring just before insolvency could face, the CRFB said in its report.
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
The promise of Social Security to provide a retirement free from poverty is already not living up to the reality many Americans are facing.
Business Insider previously spoke to over 40 baby boomers and some Gen Xers who said they’re struggling to reach a comfortable retirement, and Social Security isn’t doing enough to keep them afloat. Some retirees have even had their benefits unexpectedly slashed thanks to murky provisions.
