Market Data 
The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica—often called the “Doomsday Glacier”—has long stood as a symbol of climate risk and uncertainty. Now, it’s at the center of a $5 million initiative that blends cutting-edge science, philanthropy and the growing urgency of climate resilience. The glacier’s collapse could trigger catastrophic sea-level rise and reshape how and where we live, work and do business across the globe.
The Arête Glacier Initiative, a new coalition of researchers, technologists, and their supporters is backing a mission to better forecast the glacier’s retreat and explore ways to slow or even stop it. Dr. Brent Minchew, a founding member of the Arête Glacier Initiative, says that the group was organized around “the idea that we needed to accelerate progress in understanding and minimizing the risks of catastrophic sea level rise.”
The stakes are high. Thwaites accounts for about 4% of current global sea-level rise and is losing an estimated 50 billion tons of ice each year. If it collapses entirely, it could raise global sea levels by more than two feet. It also acts as a keystone: holding back other glaciers in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If those glaciers follow suit, some worst-case scenarios project more than eight feet of sea-level rise—enough to inundate major coastal cities and permanently alter coastlines. Minchew painted a clear, but daunting picture, “So there will be this big effect. Now we’re talking about something like between a half a billion and a billion people being displaced in my daughter’s lifetime, in the lifetime of today’s children.”
Why North America Should Pay Attention
While Antarctica may feel far away, the ripple effects of a collapsing Thwaites Glacier would reach U.S. shores. In places like New York, Boston, Miami and New Orleans, even modest sea-level rise has already made high tides more disruptive and flood insurance more expensive. Two feet of sea-level rise would push groundwater closer to the surface, overburden drainage systems, and make storm surge events more damaging.
Sea-level rise also poses systemic risks to critical infrastructure. Power plants, highways, port facilities and wastewater systems built for 20th-century conditions are already showing signs of strain. Many are concentrated in low-lying areas that could be rendered uninhabitable or uneconomical in the coming decades. This is true not just of the Thwaites glacier, but other environmental boundaries. The long-term implications extend beyond real estate losses: they affect tax bases, public service delivery, insurance markets and the global economy.
According to an NPR interview with climate scientist Sridhar Anandakrishnan, “Thwaites is the most important glacier in the world. It’s holding back a very large portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and it’s showing signs of real weakness.”
The Business of Resilience
The idea that sea-level rise is a future problem is quickly becoming outdated. It’s already forcing shifts in housing markets, business continuity planning, and public policy. Insurance firms are pulling out of high-risk coastal areas or dramatically raising premiums. Large corporations are reevaluating the locations of warehouses, manufacturing hubs, and data centers. Coastal airports, such as San Francisco International and JFK in New York, have begun elevating runways and reinforcing terminals.
For small and mid-sized businesses, the challenge is even more acute. Many don’t have the financial cushion to relocate or rebuild. In places where labor markets are shifting inland, workforce disruptions are already emerging. Local governments, facing constrained budgets, are struggling to keep up with the pace of adaptation, and businesses are left to navigate inconsistent policies and risk thresholds.
In North America, the impact will be uneven. Wealthier regions may be able to engineer their way out of the worst effects—raising levees, elevating structures, and investing in early warning systems. But poorer communities will face tough decisions about managed retreat, land use, and relocation without the resources to plan ahead.
The Uncertainty Factor
Part of what makes the Thwaites Glacier so daunting is that scientists still don’t fully understand its stability—or lack thereof. Recent sediment core samples indicate that the glacier began retreating in the 1940s, possibly linked to recurring El Niño patterns. That retreat has accelerated in recent decades, driven by warm ocean water circulating beneath the ice shelf. Some scientists argue the collapse could happen faster than expected; others believe the timeline may stretch beyond this century. But the consensus is clear: the glacier is deteriorating, and the consequences are global.
Efforts like the Arête Glacier Initiative aim to reduce that uncertainty. By improving ocean models and developing better data on ice-sheet dynamics, the group hopes to refine predictions about when and how Thwaites might collapse—and what the world can do in response. Some proposed interventions have drawn sharp criticism. Geoengineering approaches like building underwater sills to block warm water currents or using artificial snow to stabilize ice sheets are technically feasible but politically and environmentally risky. Critics warn that such measures may create new problems or delay more comprehensive climate action.
Those at the Arête Initiative say that not all approaches carrying the term “geoengineering” are dangerous. Some are backed by decades of research and data or are commonly used engineering techniques. The array includes techniques ranging from improved climate modeling to research-driven geoengineering techniques, such as underwater barriers or refreezing technologies.
Minchew, explained how one of these approaches could work. “We are focused on a particular category of interventions to slow down glaciers that involves recreating natural phenomenon that already exists within the ice sheet. So the idea of Thwaites and West Antarctic being unstable are all predicated on the idea that the bed is thawed and that the ice can slide over its bed. If we freeze the ice to its bed, it is by definition stable.”
They also argue that waiting is riskier. A relatively small investment now, could avoid trillions in damages later. Their campaign is also a signal that private funders and foundations are willing to fill a gap where public climate investment has fallen short.
A Tipping Point—And A Turning Point
Thwaites is a physical tipping point, but it also represents a turning point for how we understand and respond to climate risk. It forces a confrontation with the limits of mitigation and the growing need for adaptation—especially in high-risk regions.
For North American policymakers, the message is clear: sea-level rise is not a future abstraction. It is a present and growing force that affects infrastructure planning, economic development, and social equity.
For business leaders, the glacier underscores the need for forward-looking resilience strategies that go beyond compliance or public relations. From supply chains to talent recruitment, climate change is now a core operational issue.
For the public, Thwaites is a reminder that what happens in one corner of the world can reshape life in another. As scientists and engineers work to slow the glacier’s collapse, the rest of us will have to consider how action at all levels can contribute to more resilient systems.
