The status of Africa’s last colony faces renewed scrutiny following France’s recent recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory—a significant blow to the Sahrawi cause for independence.
Once again, the question of Western Saharan independence has captured international attention, this time prompted by French President Emmanuel Macron’s letter to King Mohammed VI on July 30, 2024, in which he recognized Western Sahara as part of Morocco. This move has heightened long-standing tensions between the key players in this conflict, namely Morocco, Algeria, and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), as Rabat seeks to gain global approval for what it claims is the only viable solution to the conflict. While some experts view France’s recognition as the final nail in the coffin solidifying Morocco’s claims to the territory, not all parties are quite as convinced.
Macron’s Recognition
Macron’s endorsement is a major step, given France’s colonial history in the region, and marks a departure from the country’s traditional neutral stance on the conflict in attempting to balance relations with both Morocco and Algeria. However, France is a relative latecomer in granting this recognition. In 2020, under former president Trump, the United States recognized Morocco’s territorial claims in exchange for accepting the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel. Since then, numerous countries, with Chad being the most recent, have opened embassies and consulates in Laayoune and Dhakla, Moroccan-controlled areas of Western Sahara. Several Arab states like the UAE, Bahrain, and Jordan also maintain embassies in these territories, signaling their tacit support for Rabat’s position. Recently, Morocco has also experienced a notable rise in its Soft Power Index, progressing up five places in the past year due to its strong tourism campaigns and multilateral economic initiatives, including the opening of a port in Dhakla, a high-speed rail project, and an offshore gas pipeline. These projects have positioned the country as a highly desirable economic partner and have likely played a role in influencing France’s decision to bolster its relationship with Morocco.
Against the backdrop of these diplomatic developments, the fate of Western Sahara’s indigenous Sahrawi population, represented by the SADR, remains uncertain. Despite tirelessly advocating for a referendum to secure an independent state, Sahrawi leadership faces increasing isolation as more countries align with Morocco’s position. This trend raises fears among Sahrawis that their aspirations for independence may be overlooked as global powers prioritize economic and strategic interests over human rights and self-determination. The conflict has also strained relations between Morocco and its neighbor, Algeria, a staunch supporter of the Sahrawi independence movement and the main financial backer of its militant wing, the Polisario Front, since 1975. Algeria’s interests in supporting Sahrawi independence are rooted in both anti-colonial sentiments and regional ambitions, viewing the Sahrawi struggle as a continuation of its own historical fight against colonialism while simultaneously vying for the role of regional leader. The country currently hosts over 173,000 Sahrawi refugees in camps in Tindouf, Algeria, which the UN considers “the world’s 2nd longest-standing refugee situation”. While Algeria hopes to resolve its humanitarian crisis, it perceives the alternative of Morocco annexing the Western Sahara as unacceptable. In response to Macron’s letter to King Mohammed VI, Algeria withdrew its ambassador to France, displaying its clear discontent at France’s actions.
The Politics of Phosphate
As these dynamics evolve, another factor that influences the situation is Morocco’s phosphate reserves, which play a significant role in the ongoing conflict. Morocco is the world’s largest producer of phosphate, containing over 70% of the world’s reserves, a portion of which is sourced from the Western Sahara Bou Craa mine, where the state-owned OCP Group conducts operations. Phosphate is a finite resource crucial for global agriculture and is found in most fertilizers. However, some projections estimate that “global reserves may be depleted in 50–100 years.” As a result, Morocco’s control over this valuable resource affords it considerable leverage in international trade.
Despite international scrutiny over business dealings in occupied territories, many companies continue to engage in this phosphate trade. In the Western Sahara Resource Watch (WSRW)’s 2024 edition of their report P for Plunder, they assert that Morocco makes hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue from its trade, with Mexico, India, and New Zealand being the biggest export destinations. While the OCP-owned Phosboucraa argues they are the region’s largest private employer, creating jobs and fostering social impact, its activities raise ethical questions about the legitimacy of extracting natural wealth from this territory. In this context, the phosphate industry acts not just as an economic asset, but also as a symbol of the broader struggle for self-determination and sovereignty.
The October Security Council Meeting
The UN Security Council is expected to revisit the status of Western Sahara at its upcoming meeting in October 2024, as the mandate for the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) is set to expire. However, given the pattern of past meetings resulting in routine extensions of MINURSO’s mandate for 6 months to a year, few new developments are anticipated. Adding to this, Algeria is serving as a non-permanent member of the Security Council till the end of 2025, making it even less unlikely that any breakthroughs will occur. Historical efforts to resolve this conflict, such as the 2003 ‘Baker Plan II’, have resulted in a stalemate and led Morocco to resist any referendum that might provide for independence. Given these previous failures to facilitate a resolution, considerable speculation exists regarding the potential for progress. Therefore, although some experts, such as the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Director of North Africa Programs, suggest a conclusion to this conflict may be on the horizon, like a mirage in the desert, the end to this conflict may be much further off than it appears.
Interestingly, the Sahrawi plight has not garnered significant international support, drawing a contrast to causes like Palestinian statehood. While some may point to this as a sign of the Polisario fighting a losing battle for independence, not all are discouraged. For instance, Mohamed Beisat, the SADR’s ambassador to South Africa, commented that despite widespread support for Palestine, Israel’s actions have not changed. He states that similarly, what should matter is not fighting for international recognition of their struggle, but the opinion of the Saharwi people. This perspective seems to resonate with many Sahrawis who, frustrated by the lack of progress through international channels, have become determined to pursue their goals through other means. Sahrawi youth in particular, fuelled by aspirations for independence, remain especially eager to have an independent homeland, even if that means resorting to a military solution to realize their autonomy goals. Their impatience with stagnant UN processes has led to a steady stream of youth joining the Polisario, many of whom have lived abroad and returned to the camps to start families and continue the fight.
Should the upcoming Security Council decision lean unfavorably for the Polisario, renewed military engagement is a possibility, potentially drawing in other nations and prolonging the conflict. However, even if armed confrontation is averted, the status quo is unlikely to change significantly. The enduring stalemate suggests that without meaningful international intervention, the Sahrawi people may continue to face frustration, with their hopes for independence overshadowed by geopolitical interests. As the October deadline approaches, the global community has a responsibility to ensure the rights of the Sahrawi people, and their struggle for self-determination, are not lost amid the shifting tide of geopolitics. Western Sahara’s ongoing struggle for autonomy, whether through diplomatic or other means, remains a daunting challenge with no clear resolution in sight.
[Header image: View of Bou Craa phosphate mine from space, taken in 2018, by Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit, NASA Johnson Space Center, via Wikimedia Commons.]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Carolina Lubinus is a graduate of Georgetown University Qatar and has expertise in public policy and international politics, specializing in the MENA region.
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