Market Data 
- The Indian Rupee weakens in Wednesday’s Asian session.
- Trump’s tariff threats undermine the INR, but significant inflows and RBI intervention might cap its downside.
- The US Core PCE inflation data will be closely watched.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline on Wednesday. The expectation that Donald Trump might impose high tariffs on imports into the US provides some support to the US Dollar (USD) and weighs on the local currency. Additionally, the cautious stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) could underpin the USD in the near term.
Nonetheless, the foreign inflows related to the rejig of MSCI’s global equity indexes might help limit the INR’s losses. The downside of the Indian Rupee might be capped as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might intervene in the foreign exchange market to prevent the INR from depreciating. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) – Price Index for October will be the highlight on Wednesday. Also, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, the Chicago PMI and Durable Goods Orders will be published.
Indian Rupee remains weak despite MSCI Index rebalancing
- The MSCI index rebalancing significantly boosted the Indian stock market, drawing in foreign investors who fueled over $1 billion in net purchases.
- A major portion of the Indian economy is witnessing an upward trend despite fluctuations, according to HSBC Global Research.
- Donald Trump said early Tuesday that he would announce a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada from his first day in office and impose an extra 10% tariff on goods from China.
- Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest meeting indicated that the policymakers are taking a cautious approach to cutting interest rates as inflation is easing and the labor market remains strong.
- Financial markets are now pricing in nearly 57.7% possibility that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, down from around 69.5% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
USD/INR holds a bullish undertone
The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. The USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe within an ascending trend channel on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index, which is located above the midline near 55.30, suggesting further upside looks favorable.
The crucial resistance level emerges in the 84.50-84.55 zone, representing the all-time high and the upper boundary of the trend channel. Sustained bullish momentum above this level could see a rally to the 85.00 psychological mark.
On the other hand, the lower limit of the trend channel of 84.24 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. The next contention level is seen at 83.94, the 100-day EMA. The additional downside filter to watch is 83.65, the low of August 1.
RBI FAQs
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is “..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
